【Hashworld News | Macro Flash】

US "Temporarily Allows" Iranian Oil for 30 Days, Trump Mentions Orderly End to War: Stabilizing Oil Prices or US Debt?

According to the US Department of Treasury, the United States approved a limited 30-day authorization allowing Iranian crude oil and petroleum products already in transit to complete delivery and sales, expected to release approximately 140 million barrels of supply to global markets. From a macro perspective, this appears more like an emergency hedging operation against oil prices and inflation.

First, Risk Control
This authorization has clear restrictions:
• Only applies to already-loaded oil
• Time window limited to 30 days
• Does not involve new exports or long-term policy adjustments

This means the US has not changed its sanctions framework against Iran, but rather temporarily released inventory to stabilize market expectations amid rising Middle East tensions.

Second, Core Logic: Oil Price → Inflation → Interest Rates → US Debt
The true main line of current global macro dynamics is not in the Middle East itself, but in the following chain:
Oil price increases → Inflation rebound → Federal Reserve unable to cut rates → US debt interest rates remain elevated → Fiscal pressure intensifies

In other words:
👉 What the US really needs to stabilize is not the Middle East, but inflation and interest rate trajectories
If oil prices break through $100 due to geopolitical conflicts, it will directly disrupt the Fed's rate-cutting timeline, further worsening the already elevated US debt interest burden.

Third, Why Act Now?
Recent Middle East tensions carry escalation risks:
• Red Sea shipping disruptions
• Potential threats to the Strait of Hormuz
• Risk of Iran-Israel conflict spillover

Against this backdrop, the US chose to preemptively release supply to suppress oil price expectations, rather than respond passively after the fact.
This is a typical "expectations management" approach.

Fourth, Market Impact
Short-term:
Oil price appreciation pressured (bearish for crude)
Inflation expectations ease (bullish for risk assets)
Crypto market sentiment tilts positive

Medium-term key variables:
• If conflicts remain controllable → Risk assets continue rally
• If energy facilities are attacked → Oil price spikes → Macro liquidity tightens
• If Strait of Hormuz blocked → Global liquidity shock (systemic risk)

Fifth, Hashworld News Perspective
This is a typical macroeconomic control action by the US.
In the current cycle:
👉 Oil price is the Federal Reserve's "shadow interest rate"
👉 And interest rates are the lifeline of the US debt system
The US allowing Iranian oil short-term market inflow is essentially buying time for itself.
This reluctant policy is to avoid financial system stress ahead of schedule.
What the US is releasing is not Iranian oil, but a "liquidity valve" for inflation hedging.