Bitcoin Bottom-Fishing Indicators Collectively Fail, $45,000 May Be the Last Defense Line

Bitcoin has reversed course after eight consecutive daily gains, continuing to decline from $76,000, currently trading around $69,200. For players eager to bottom-fish, the greatest confusion is this: how have those indicators that once worked reliably suddenly stopped working?

The Ahr999 index has been lying in the sub-0.45 bottom-fishing zone for nearly 50 days. In the past, this would have been time to enter with eyes closed, but the market kept falling anyway. MVRV Z-Score hasn't fared much better either. Previously, touching negative values meant a golden opportunity, but the lowest this cycle only reached +0.26, and the so-called "green zone" never materialized. STH-SOPR staying below 1 continuously has set a record since October last year, displaying typical bear market characteristics, yet there's no sign of reversal.

Where's the problem? Simply put, Bitcoin's pricing logic has changed. After the spot ETF approval, institutional holdings, derivatives arbitrage, exchange internal settlement, and even US macroeconomic monetary policy—these are the dominant forces controlling prices. Those traditional indicators based on on-chain address behavior have had their underlying assumptions completely broken. MVRV Z-Score's denominator has been artificially inflated by ETF's massive holdings, Ahr999's mean reversion logic appears powerless before liquidity contraction, and SOPR simply cannot show true panic capitulation because long-term holders have too much unrealized gains.

So what should we look at now? The industry is starting to turn attention to several indicators more aligned with current market conditions.

CVDD, a model developed by analyst Willy Woo, tracks Bitcoin's cumulative holding weights across different price ranges, constructing an "historical iron floor" curve that has never been broken. In December 2018 and November 2022, the market approached this line twice before reversing. Currently, CVDD shows the iron floor around $45,000.

The NUPL indicator measures the network's unrealized profit/loss net value. Falling into negative territory typically signals fear or capitulation and represents a potential bottom signal. The last time this occurred was from June 2022 to January 2023. This value currently hovers around 0.2, suggesting chip washing hasn't been thorough enough.

Stablecoin exchange net inflows may be the most direct leading indicator—price rebounds without stablecoin reflows are merely technical bounces driven by leverage. Currently, USDT and USDC continue experiencing outflows, indicating we're still some distance from the true bottom.

Comprehensively speaking, the market may be at an awkward stage: the valuation bottom has appeared, but the capital bottom and sentiment bottom haven't arrived yet. What needs attention next is whether CVDD's $45,000 iron floor defense line can hold, and when stablecoin inflows will resume.

Buy when no one cares, sell when everyone's talking about it. Only when your barber Tony starts asking you how to buy Bitcoin should you consider exiting. #Gate13周年全球庆典 $ETH ‌$BTC ‌