- No rate hike, no rate cut: Federal funds rate maintained at 3.50%–3.75%.
- Vote: Passed 11:1, only Waller dissented (opposed slowing quantitative tightening).
- Core reasons: Middle East conflict pushing up oil prices, inflation rebound (core PCE around 3%); weakening employment (February non-farm -92,000, unemployment rate 4.4%), under stagflation pressure can only wait and see.
II. Changes in rate hike expectations (key)
- March meeting: Market pricing shows rate hike probability only about 1%, almost impossible.
- Next 3 months: Rate hike probability about 25%, first time exceed
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