Markets Bet Against $100K Bitcoin in the Near Term - Crypto Economy

TLDR

• Less than 10% of traders on Polymarket and Kalshi believe Bitcoin will reclaim six figures before the end of January.
• There is a 65% probability that the price will first retreat to $80,000 before attempting a new all-time high.
• The investment community is closely watching MicroStrategy’s average purchase price as a vital psychological support level.

Since the beginning of 2026, investor sentiment has turned cautious. The latest data from platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket reveal that the possibility of seeing Bitcoin reach $100,000 in the short term is extremely low, with odds oscillating between 6% and 7% for the remainder of January.

This lack of bullish conviction comes amid a landscape of macroeconomic uncertainty and an absence of immediate catalysts. Although the pioneer cryptocurrency reached a yearly high of $97,900 on January 14, the price continues to struggle to maintain the momentum necessary to break the six-figure psychological barrier.

Furthermore, analysts are concerned that the derivatives market is pricing in more pessimistic scenarios. For instance, a majority of bettors on Polymarket give a 65% probability that the asset will drop toward the $80,000 range before seeing any significant recovery toward the end of the semester.


Institutional Support and Projections for 2026

Large corporate treasuries are also commanding the sector’s full attention, especially MicroStrategy. According to traders, there is a 75% probability that the Bitcoin price will fall below the average acquisition cost of the company led by Michael Saylor, which currently stands at $75,979.

However, despite the expected volatility, institutional commitment remains steadfast. Bets suggest an 84% probability that MicroStrategy will continue increasing its reserves to exceed 800,000 BTC by the end of December, acting as a pillar of constant accumulation.

In summary, although the goal of seeing Bitcoin reach $100,000 in the short term seems to be fading from the immediate calendar, the ecosystem is preparing for a rebalancing phase. Investors should monitor whether the $70,000 support level withstands selling pressure before a new cycle of price discovery begins.