Lucaa

$ETH - I don’t like the overall market structure here, as the price is still struggling to break above the lost high-timeframe support range marked in purple, which also aligns with the 2D Bull Market Support Band, a strong reversal spot over the last couple of months.
However, it looks like the price may be forming a potential rising wedge on the mid-term, which could lead to a breakdown in a more bearish setting and a continuation of the downtrend into the high-timeframe support range marked in green, aligning with the early-April 2025 bottoming formation.
Because of this, my overall stance

The propaganda on both sides is real.

$BTC - The price has bounced off of the 0.786 Fibonacci POI I highlighted in some of my prior PAT Updates and is now testing the 2D Bull Market Support Band, which has been a strong reversal spot over the last couple of months.
Because of this, I believe that the best approach on the low-timeframes is to remain cautious until there are some clear signs of strength that would make the most likely outcome a continuation to the upside.
As long as the price keeps staying below the support band, I believe that the most likely outcome remains further consolidation or a continuation of the high-timef

$BTC - Degen longs are the reason why we can’t have nice things.

Everyone is talking about war escalation, but $OIL is telling a different story.

$ETH - The price has rejected at the lost high-timeframe support range I marked in some of my prior PAT Updates, which also aligns with the 2D Bull Market Support Band sitting at $2.18K.
On the mid-term, it seems that since early February the price may be forming a rising wedge, which is concerning.
Because of this, until there are clear confirmations of a durable breakout above this lost high-timeframe support range and above the 2D Bull Market Support Band, I believe the best approach is to remain conservative, cautious, and hedged.
For now, I will remain hedged in order to mitigate the mid-

$BTC - The price of Bitcoin is currently moving down, which is exactly why I emphasized the importance of waiting for clear confirmations before taking a more decisive stance on the low-timeframes, such as scaling out of my hedges and rotating the capital back into my spot holdings.
From the beginning, there was always the risk that this move could end up being just a fakeout, and until there is clear confirmation of a durable breakout, the most likely outcome on the low-timeframes remains further consolidation inside the high-timeframe support range marked in purple, aligning with the 0.786 F

Everyone is talking about Iran bombing Israel, but no one is talking about this:

Funding Rates still nearing negative territories across the board, even with $BTC crossing $71K

Dubai's and South Korea's markets are crashing.
Meanwhile, all the liquidity is flowing into crypto, $SPX, $SILVER, or $GOLD, which are considered safer and more liquid right now.
This is expected in times of local wars, or geopolitical risks.
However, I believe that this is a good sign for the broader markets and a sign of what's coming next.
Generally, if the markets feared this could become a global war, all the liquidity would flow into cash, so the $DXY should rise aggressively.
Instead, we're seeing the complete opposite now, which signals that this either remains a local geopolitical ri

“Iran is bombing Israel”
Meanwhile, the Israelian stock market:

$BTC - Currently targeting the shorts at $71K.
Hopefully this ends up being a sustained rally and not a fakeout. Will share an update tonight.