We are now at week 3 below $100k and weeks 2 below $90k.
Many traders, even some of the traders I respect the most on here, spoke in length about how if we spent weeks below the 50 MA, weeks below $100k and weeks below the 2025 yearly open then that would mark the begin of the end of the cycle
Yet somehow… Someway… instead of abiding to their original thesis they have somehow become even more bullish on the way down
There’s no need to flip flop on an asset that is showing all the signs of being on the verge of entering into a bear market. Nothing has happened to indicate we are going to rip

People will keep questioning whether this is a bear market until we are sitting at $60k
A few things in this environment that will help improve profitability:
- don’t hold anything overnight
- set stop losses
- downsize
- be picky
In short, this is risk off mode. And the market continues to show us over and over again. Listen to it.
Last year I remember trading Jan-Mar. This is the period that felt like the closest thing we got to an alt season. I then proceeded to continue trading April-July and roundtripped half of that profit.
I got to the end of that period, did some self reflection and

Remember that even when we find a macro bottom, we often spend may months there before any major reversal happens

Notice the shift in sentiment? People are slowly getting used to the fact we are trading not just below $100k for the second week in a row, but below $90k

The tide goes in and it goes out. It’s crazy to see people get surprised every time the tide goes out…
They’re like a leaf getting tossed around in the wind
$1,000,000 Bitcoin is going to happen in the next 10 years and these same people will have absolutely zero to their name

This is when taking profits the entire year on the way up and during good conditions really pays off
Nothing beats cold, hard cash.
But cash is not the end goal, assets are. So if you have cash on hand… it’s in these times you need to start thinking about your long term plan

People constantly bash Cash, until you see everything collapsing around it and you're left with nothing
I'm semi tempted to start on-ramping some profits I took out this year back to crypto, ready to buy longterm $BTC

Despite the timelines incessant calls for the bottom, BTC is still grinding lower and doing its own thing
No matter which way you look at it, what’s happening now is terrible. Absolutely terrible. We’re on the verge of a second weekly close, not only below 100k this time.. but below 90k.
Each and every bull case keeps getting invalidated almost on a daily basis yet people keep hanging onto hope.
Capital preservation is the most important thing right now. Things will change but right now its like standing in front of a train

Had to catch myself today after bear posting, I’ve never been the type to talk in absolutes and it never ends well
Ive written a list of objective facts to lean bullish and bearish… At this point the list of reasons to be bearish far outweigh reasons to be bullish. Im not talking about short term relief bounces, I’m talking about a macro trend shift.
In this moment I am bearish but am open to a potential shift as new information arrives

there's still time to exit your 'strong' alts.
This 'relative strength in alts' people have been talking about, its fugazi. It's fake. It's not real.
The door is shrinking...

Another day, another grind lower.
The 'obvious' opportunity that I want to see is another leg down similar to 10/10. Perhaps not so violently, but with similar price action.
This slow grind lower with minimal bounces in between is not where I want to be doing business.

My girlfriend says to me today while we were at the beach in for a swim:
‘Gold you missed the wave!’ As one rolls by…
And I turned to her and said:
‘There will always be another wave that comes by that you can catch. Never forget that’

There’s the weekly close below $95k - and still we’re are just hovering at/below $94k
Perhaps we get a pump to $105k but think it’s a lower high and should be used as your final GTFO opportunity
My job has been finished this cycle. I stuck to my plan of regularly withdrawing profits and currently sitting on a big cash stack.
This is what I had planned for since the beginning of the year. Giving back a small % at the end of a cycle is entirely normal, but the absolute most difficult part is knowing when to stop taking trades to avoid those pointless big drawdowns that will ruin your psychology

My observation across CT and groups is that nobody actually truly thinks it’s over and that all dips are for buying
It’s a scary concept considering we have now been under 100k for several days without any bounce at all.
We are also on the verge of closing our first weekly candle sub $100k since April of this year
It’s okay to be in cash

Objectively:
$BTC is now trading under 100k with multi day close for the first time in over 6 months. Zero big bounce. Acceptance below 100k
Stocks now putting in some dangerous high timeframe closes.
BTC was weak with every tailwind imaginable. We hit 70s early in the year due to tariff fears and now just drifting lower due to ‘normal’ PA.
50 week MA broken and daily closures below. Next will be to look at weekly closure in 2 days time.
People still bullish and want to buy the dips.
Personally:
On track to be my first losing month since last July. -50k on the month. Although mid month so any

Thursday Market Thoughts in Point Form:
We need to get above the 50 week MA as soon as humanly possible. For the entirety of the bull market it's acted as a great line in the sand for the bull market. It also works well to show us when the trend is breaking - which it currently is on the verge of potentially doing.
A lot of people arguing on the timeline if we got euphoria this cycle. Listen, if you have to debate about whether we got euphoria.. There was no euphoria.
Trade less. Seeing many things pump at random.. but there's no edge in these. Wait for obvious opportunities e.g. UNI, ASTER,