Emilyvuong

U.S. Retail Sales for December Disappoint
U.S. retail sales for December remained flat at 0.0% MoM, significantly below the forecast of +0.4% and the previous month's +0.6%. Year-over-year, the figure is +2.4% YoY — the lowest increase since 09/2024, despite December being the holiday shopping season in the U.S.
Most importantly, the (control group) contributing to GDP turned negative, decreasing by -0.1% MoM — a reversal from +0.2% last month and well below the +0.4% forecast.
December retail sales data indicate that U.S. consumer spending momentum continues to weaken, especially in core grou

🇯🇵 Japan's Stock Market Hits Historic Highs After Election
Nikkei 225 surged strongly after Sanae Takaichi won the election and the ruling coalition secured a super majority in the House of Representatives. The market responded immediately with expectations that the government would have enough political power to accelerate growth programs, public investment, and economic reforms.
Nikkei 225 and TOPIX both reached record highs, led by capital flows returning to real estate, healthcare, and industrial sectors—areas that benefit directly from budget spending and industrial policies.
Positive s

📍 CFTC Opens Stablecoin to the US Banking System
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has expanded the regulatory framework for stablecoins, allowing national trust banks to issue USD-pegged tokens under the GENIUS Act framework. This means the US government permits trust banks to tightly regulate the issuance of their own USD-backed stablecoins.
This move shifts stablecoins from the private crypto sector into a regulated financial system with clear oversight, auditing, and legal standards. As a result, stablecoins are now eligible to participate in large-scale trading markets, der

Since June last year, when all asset classes were increasing in value, $BTC became the only asset that mysteriously declined every time the Fed injected more liquidity.

Gold has just experienced the largest one-day capitalization fluctuation in history, up to $5.5 trillion. From 9:30 to 10:25, the gold capitalization evaporated -3.2 trillion USD – or -$58B mỗi minutes. Collapsed so fast that the market did not have time to react. From 10:25 to 16:00, the market pulled back upwards, +$2.3 trillion in just a few hours. In just 6.5 hours, the gold capitalization fluctuated to a value of more than 3 times the capitalization of Bitcoin - approximately $850B mỗi hours. The volatility of gold is higher than during the 2008 Global Economic Crisis. Too much leverage i

GameStop just transferred all 4.710 $BTC of their holdings to Coinbase Prime, which clearly isn't a positive signal. Especially when the market is at a critical support level.

🔶Donald Trump threatens to impose a 10% tariff on European goods if the EU does not support the US in purchasing Greenland.
The list of affected countries includes: Denmark, Norway, Sweden, the UK, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Finland.
If the opposition continues, the tariff could be raised to 25%.
-> The estimated impact of this tariff level is equivalent to 1-1.5% of the EU's GDP. Large enough to exert economic pressure.
EU response:
- The EU is considering activating the Anti-Coercion Instrument (ACI) and a retaliatory tariff package of ~$93B.
- Only France supports a firm stance; Ger

🔶The 40Y JGB yield reaches the highest in history. Something very big is about to happen.
Sanae Takaichi, although not directly calling for dissolving the National Diet, signals a desire to dissolve the House of Representatives and hold early elections to restore the government's legitimacy.
Sanae Takaichi proposes reducing the food tax to 0% for 2 years to ease the cost of living pressure on citizens. This means the Japanese government must shoulder an additional $65B to cover losses.
It is expected that Tokyo wants to offset the deficit by cutting subsidies and increasing non-tax revenue i

Venezuela - a closed-loop chain of cause and effect
Oil creates an illusion of capacity (1999–2012)
- Venezuela with 17% of the global reserves, surpassing even Saudi Arabia.
- During Hugo Chávez's rule, the global oil price boom also drove Venezuela's GDP to soar, peaking around $350B
The issue is:
- No signs of industrial growth
- No productivity improvements
- No export diversification
-> The economy grew rapidly thanks to an external factor, the oil price, which increased too quickly and obscured the effective use of state capital, while vigorous domestic consumption masked a sharp decline

📍 Canada - China upgrades diplomatic relations
Canada has just announced the establishment of a new strategic partnership with China, according to a statement from Prime Minister Mark Carney. Key points of the agreement:
- Canola Canada exports to China: Tariffs sharply reduced from 85% to 15%, effective before 3/1 - accelerating the rescue of the agricultural sector.
- Chinese electric vehicles into Canada: Import tariffs reduced from 100% to MFN 6.1%, but limited to 49,000 vehicles per year.
- Seafood & agricultural products: Tariffs reduced for lobster, crab, and Canadian peas.
- Investmen

📍Gold has had the best year of gains since 1979 with an increase of over 60%.
It is clearly impossible to explain that gold is being revalued by inflation when US CPI and most G10 groups are expected to slow down in 2025.
The Gold/CPI ratio reached 13.3 – also the highest level in history.
The real gold price ( adjusted for inflation ) has surpassed the historic peak of the 1980s.
Gold is not chasing inflation, but faith in fiat is at an all-time low.

🟠Nearly 36M $ETH (30% of the total supply) - equivalent to $119B being staked.
This number continues to rise sharply in the early days of the year. After several months of stagnation since August last year, the amount of #ETH locked increased from 35.5M to 35.9M in a short period, marking the end of the quiet phase.

📍 US December CPI: The best CPI reading since Trump took office
📌 Year-over-year (YoY)
- Headline CPI: +2.7% YoY - unchanged from the previous month, in line with forecasts.
- Core #CPI: +2.6% YoY - unchanged from the previous month, below the forecast +2.7%.
📌 Month-over-month (MoM)
- Headline CPI: +0.3% MoM - unchanged from the previous month and in line with forecasts.
- Core CPI: +0.2% MoM - unchanged from the previous month, below the forecast +0.3%.
📌 Supercore CPI +0.14% MoM, +2.84% YoY (lowest since 09/2021).
📍 Details of changes by basket
- Food increased sharply by +0.7% MoM
- C

📍USD experienced the worst year in nearly a decade
If we only look at policies, 2025 should have been a favorable year for the US dollar. Tariffs were expected to bring capital flows back to the US, and the story of U.S. exceptionalism became the biggest narrative. However, DXY ended 2025 down -9%. In the first half of 2025: USD fell more than -12%, with a 6-month drop the strongest since the floating exchange rate system was introduced in the 1970s(.
-> On the G10 chart, the USD is the red line below the bottom; all other major currencies outperformed strongly — global capital is broadly lea

📍The US economy in 2026 will fall into a "lite stagflation" — a milder version of the stagflation era, with sluggish growth and sticky inflation.
📌US economic growth is likely to hover around 1.5-2%. The cycle where fiscal stimulus and asset price increases are the main drivers of the market, while the rest of the economy follows at a slow pace.
📌Inflation remains subdued due to OER reflecting housing market lags. Non-housing services will decline very slowly as they follow wage trends; tariffs have not yet fully reflected the impact, leaving room for price increases throughout 2026. The Fe

🟠 The US trade deficit in October fell to -$29.4B, the lowest since 2009
The figure is surprising because it is much better than the forecasted -$58.1B. September was also revised from -$52.8B to -$48.1B, paving the way for an upward adjustment of Q3 GDP.
- Exports increased +2.6% MoM to $302B
- Imports decreased -3.2% MoM to $342.1B.
-> Compared to 2024, the deficit continues to improve. The US is balancing its trade deficit by increasing exports of gold, jewelry, and pharmaceuticals — surprising as these asset groups saw strong gains in 2025.
The deficit with China is only -$175.4B, the lo

🚨 The amount of $ETH waiting to unstake is now 0 - the milestone before 7/2025. The market has balanced its psychology after the October crash.