Arnau4Bet

Someone created a new wallet and bet +$100,000 that the United States will attack Iran in March.
Right now, they are at a loss, but they are holding the position. They are very confident.
Gambler or insider?

Gold, silver, and oil rise. Bitcoin falls.
When there is geopolitical uncertainty, capital rushes into safe-haven assets. Bitcoin is still not one of them. It is priced as a leveraged risk asset, not as the digital gold that many want it to be.

We've been stuck in this loop for months, but remember: nothing ever happens until something happens.

We have poor macroeconomic data:
GDP grew by 1.4%, well below the expected 3.0%, indicating a sharper slowdown than the market had anticipated.
December's PCE inflation rose to 2.9% (vs. 2.8% expected), while Core PCE climbed to 3.0%, its highest level since November 2023.
Deceleration + rising inflation.

Is China quietly accumulating Bitcoin?
One of the largest holders of the Bitcoin ETF is a Chinese shell company called Laurore Ltd.
Almost nothing is known about them, only that the address is in Hong Kong.
Since China cannot buy crypto directly, they use this vehicle to gain exposure through BlackRock. Chinese institutional money has already entered. And no one saw it coming.

Bitcoin is approaching a zone of historical accumulation. The red circles indicate previous lows: 2015, 2018, 2020, 2022. We are now near those levels again. There is still some room to fall, but we are not that far off.

The big transfer: Bitcoin changes hands.
We are witnessing a major redistribution.
While retail investors (retail) continue selling, corporations, institutional funds, and governments are steadily absorbing that supply.

Will the markets rise soon? Watch out for this.
When the Put/Call ratio exceeds 1.0, it indicates panic in the SP500. Historically, when fear reaches these levels, the SP500 and markets tend to rebound.

Bitcoin is approaching a key zone: the area above 58,000.
It has served as support in the past, as shown by the marked points. Bitcoin bounced there on previous occasions.
But beware, it is not infallible. It should be viewed as an area of interest, not as a guarantee of a bottom.

Economic uncertainty now surpasses that of 2008 and 2020 with Covid.
However, almost all markets are near their highs, except for cryptocurrencies.
The big players are selling off Bitcoin and altcoins due to the uncertainty.

What if we haven't hit the bottom in Bitcoin yet?
Bitcoin has not reached its realized price of (55K). It did so in 2018 and 2022.
It cannot be ruled out that at some point we will drop down to touch the blue line.

Is the AI bubble coming to an end?
AI performance has been excessive, similar to past explosions that ended badly. The market knows this, and it's something that cannot be ignored.
History never repeats, but it rhymes.

Look at this image.
These are the moving averages that marked the bottoms of 2015, 2018, and 2022. According to this, the worst-case scenario for Bitcoin could be 55K-48K.
These are approximate zones, not exact. But it's interesting.

Pay attention to this chart.
We are at levels equivalent to the 2022 bear market, and we are seeing huge losses.
But if you look closely at 2022, we didn't see the bottom until about 5 months later. Maybe history won't repeat itself, but it's something to keep in mind.

The United States is about to activate the largest money printing in history.
HOW DOES THIS AFFECT YOUR INVESTMENTS?
The 30-year US bond is pushing 5%. That’s the red line. If it surpasses that, the system collapses. The US has so much debt that it cannot pay it at those interest rates.
That’s why every time yields approach 5%, the Fed or Trump intervene. They do whatever it takes to lower it. But the problem is they can’t do it forever.
The only viable solution for the US is Yield Curve Control (YCC). The Fed will buy bonds whenever yields rise. Infinitely. Printing dollars nonstop.
It’s the

Look at this chart.
Bitcoin's RSI is in extreme oversold territory. Every time it reaches this level, it bounces back.
And now check out the Business Cycle below. At absolute lows. Every time the economic cycle hits bottom, Bitcoin bounces.

The United States is at a tricky point:
Its debt has already surpassed $36 trillion, and with high interest rates, paying it off is becoming a serious problem.
This is not sustainable for much longer.
That’s why they need interest rates to come down, and everything points to them already having a plan.
Kevin Warsh, who sounds like a potential next Federal Reserve Chair, proposes that decisions about money should be made primarily with the goal of financing the government.
If that happens, the change would be clear:
- The Fed would stop focusing solely on inflation
- The priority would be ensur