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Gold: High-level fluctuation with a slight strength, the 4800 level determines the short-term direction
Recent Market Review
This week, international gold prices experienced a significant rebound after a deep correction earlier. As of April 11, spot gold fluctuated around the 4700-4800 USD range, soaring to 4850 USD/ounce on April 8, hitting a three-week high. During the trading day on April 10, gold initially moved within a narrow range around 4700 USD, then in the evening, due to a weakening dollar, it rebounded briefly to test the 4800 USD level, closing with a small positive candle. Gold h

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A "Climactic Negotiation" That Will Decide Gold's Future Direction
This weekend's most market-moving event is the closed-door talks between the U.S. and Iran on Saturday in Islamabad. Just one day after both sides reached a 14-day ceasefire agreement on April 7, the situation reversed again—Trump's team directly threw Iran's proposed 10-point agreement into the trash bin and issued tough threats again on social media. Meanwhile, the U.S. has been loudly claiming to be the "winner" of the strait and should control the benefits, with both sides refusing to back down.
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1. Gold Bulls and Bears:

1. Recent Gold Price Trends: Wide Fluctuations at High Levels
In the first quarter of 2026, gold experienced a broad range of "setting new records first, then sharply correcting," with London gold trading between $4,098 and $5,599 per ounce, still up 8% for the quarter. Entering April, gold prices repeatedly oscillated between $4,700 and $4,850, with market sentiment alternately driven by sudden geopolitical conflict escalations and rapid risk premium unwinding.
Key points from recent trading days:
· April 3: U.S.-Iran conflict sharply escalated; after Trump’s tough talk, U.S. oil surged over

Tonight at 8:30 PM, the US March CPI data will be released. At present, Bitcoin and Ethereum are trading in a tight, sideways range, taking a wait-and-see stance. The CPI will directly affect Federal Reserve rate-cut expectations, which will then drive changes in the US dollar and US bond yields and ultimately transmit to the crypto market. The current rate-cut expectations have been pushed back to September–December; combined with high leverage, the market is highly prone to sharp swings after the data release.
Three scenarios: if CPI comes in above expectations and inflation remains stubborn

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The core goal of the Clear Act is to establish a comprehensive federal regulatory framework for the digital asset market, filling the legal gaps in the United States in this field. Its main contents include:
· Defining regulatory jurisdiction: The bill aims to clearly define when digital assets are classified as "securities" and when as "commodities," thereby clarifying whether they fall under the jurisdiction of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
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If the United States accepts Iran's proposed conditions in this round of negotiations, it would be tantamount to surrendering, and Trump would become the most "humiliating and shameful" president in American history. Just take a look at 8 out of the 10 conditions Iran has set forth:
1) Guarantee no further military actions;
2) Recognize Iran's ongoing control of the Strait of Hormuz;
3) Accept Iran's uranium enrichment activities;
4) Lift all primary and secondary sanctions;
5) Terminate all relevant resolutions of the UN Security Council and the International Atomic Energy Agency;
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🌍 Oil Prices Hovering High and AI's Thunderclap: The Global Markets Stand at a Crossroads
In just one day, the global markets were pulled in two completely different yet interconnected forces. On April 9th, local time, Russian President Putin announced that, due to the upcoming Orthodox Easter, Russian military would implement a ceasefire from 4:00 pm on April 11, 2026, to 12:00 am on April 12. This news was quickly overshadowed by more urgent updates: traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains astonishingly low, international oil prices ignore the ceasefire and rebound again; on the same d

BTC's rise last night (April 9th) was the result of multiple factors resonating together, with the direct catalyst being the easing of geopolitical conflicts. At the same time, supported by institutional funds and large-scale short liquidations, the price surged in the short term.
Direct Catalyst: Easing of Geopolitical Conflicts, Risk Appetite Rebound
The most immediate trigger was the temporary two-week ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran. The risk of a "black swan" event due to conflict escalation has been greatly reduced, and capital previously withdrawn for safe-haven purposes has

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Tomorrow night (April 10 at 20:30), the U.S. March CPI data will be released, becoming the most critical macro variable in April. There are two scenarios: if core CPI month-over-month is below 0.3%, the market will treat the “oil price shock” as a one-off disruption, expectations for rate cuts will be marginally repaired, and BTC is expected to test $75,000; if core CPI month-over-month is above 0.3%, then the “higher interest rates for longer” narrative will return, and BTC could fall back to $60,000–$62,000. In terms of the backdrop, the conflict between the U.S. and Iran has pushed up oil p

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Iran Tightens Control as Israeli Airstrikes Disrupt Passage
The situation in the Strait of Hormuz has experienced intense fluctuations over the past 24 hours. Iran has previously strengthened control over the strait through a tiered charging mechanism, dividing ships into five categories based on their "friendliness" to Iran. Transit fees start at about $1 per barrel, payable in RMB or stablecoins, colloquially referred to by industry insiders as a "maritime toll booth." The Iranian Parliament's Security Committee has approved related legislation to "institutionalize" the fee system and explic

Iran Demands Oil Tankers Pay Transit Fees in BTC
On the geopolitical front, Iran has dropped a "financial nuclear bomb." According to the Financial Times, during the two-week ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran, Iran will require oil tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz to pay tolls in cryptocurrency. The fee is set at $1 per barrel of crude oil; empty ships can pass free of charge. After the ship operators receive an email from Iran, they will have "a few seconds" to make the payment in Bitcoin, ensuring the fee cannot be tracked or seized due to sanctions.
Within minutes of the news