Why Bird Flu Has Made Eggs So Expensive: The Supply Chain Crisis Explained

Walking through grocery stores lately feels like stepping into a scene from a survival thriller—egg sections stand nearly empty, and when you do find a carton, the price tag delivers a shock that rivals anything on the shelves. Egg prices have spiraled to unprecedented levels, driven by forces far beyond normal seasonal fluctuations. Understanding what’s happening reveals a much deeper crisis rippling through America’s food supply.

The Sticker Shock at Your Local Grocer

The numbers paint a stark picture. According to U.S. government data, a dozen eggs averaged $4.16 in December, representing a 37% jump compared to the previous year. This doesn’t sound extreme until you compare it to overall grocery inflation: general food prices climbed just 1.8% during the same period. The wholesale price tells an even more alarming story—grocers are paying $6.55 per dozen for eggs before marking them up for customers. To put this in perspective, that same dozen cost just 94 cents in January 2022. The gap between then and now represents a staggering 600% increase.

Retailers have responded to the scarcity by implementing purchase limits at checkout, restricting customers to just a few cartons per trip. Some states have experienced such severe shortages that empty egg aisles have become the norm rather than the exception. For budget-conscious shoppers, this represents a real challenge—eggs have been a reliable, affordable protein source for decades, and that reality has abruptly shifted.

H5N1: The Silent Destroyer of America’s Egg Supply

The culprit behind this crisis isn’t energy prices, inflation, or typical market forces—it’s a virus with a scientific designation most Americans had never heard of until recently: H5N1, commonly known as bird flu.

This particular strain emerged during the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic and has been circulating through America’s poultry farms ever since. The scope of the devastation is difficult to overstate. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the virus has infected more than 145 million birds since January 2022. More recently, data analysis shows that over 30 million chickens specifically raised for egg production have been culled since November alone.

The farming protocol is ruthlessly efficient but economically destructive: the moment a bird tests positive for H5N1, the entire flock must be killed as a containment measure. Some farmers have reportedly faced this nightmare scenario multiple times, forced to depopulate their operations and start from scratch. Each cycle means months without egg production before new hens reach laying maturity—a timeline that extends the supply shortage and drives prices ever higher.

Learning from 2015: Why This Outbreak Is So Much Worse

The current crisis isn’t America’s first encounter with catastrophic bird flu. In 2015, a similar outbreak struck poultry farms, resulting in the death of approximately 50 million birds. That outbreak did trigger higher egg prices, sending costs from around $2 per dozen to $3 within months. However, by spring 2016, prices had already normalized and dropped below pre-outbreak levels.

The crucial difference today: the current H5N1 wave is several times more severe than the 2015 episode, and the virus continues to spread without any sign of slowing. More birds have been killed, the outbreak has persisted longer, and the accumulated impact on infrastructure and farmer confidence is significantly greater. While the 2015 crisis was alarming, this one represents a more entrenched threat to the nation’s egg-laying capacity.

When Will Expensive Eggs Become Affordable Again?

The timeline for price relief remains uncertain. Industry projections suggested further increases throughout 2025, though the pace and extent of any additional hikes depend on whether the virus continues its relentless march through remaining flocks. If the outbreak continues at its current trajectory, consumers should prepare for sustained high prices in the near term.

Recovery will require several conditions to align: the spread of H5N1 must slow dramatically, infected regions must rebuild their poultry operations, and newly raised replacement hens must reach productive age. That multi-stage process typically takes many months, meaning relief won’t arrive quickly.

In the interim, some shoppers are exploring alternatives—switching to plant-based protein sources, investing in powdered eggs for baking, or adjusting recipes to require fewer eggs. These aren’t ideal solutions for those who prefer whole eggs, but they represent the reality consumers now face. The bird flu outbreak hasn’t just made eggs expensive; it’s fundamentally altered how American households approach one of their most basic grocery staples.