## Can China's Homegrown AI Giants Match OpenAI's Scale? What These Dual Hong Kong Listings Tell Us

Two of China's most ambitious artificial intelligence startups are hitting Hong Kong's public markets this week, and investors are watching closely to gauge interest in whether Beijing can cultivate world-class AI champions. Zhipu and MiniMax represent starkly different visions for how China might challenge global leaders—and the market's reception to both could define the next chapter of the country's AI ambitions.

### The Tale of Two AI Strategies

Zhipu operates like an enterprise software company with state backing. Founded in 2019 by Tsinghua University researchers led by Tang Jie, it focuses on serving over 8,000 institutional clients—primarily state-owned enterprises and large corporations uncomfortable with public cloud solutions. The company generated 312.4 million yuan ($44.7 million) in 2024 revenue.

MiniMax took the opposite route. Born from a gaming studio's fascination with OpenAI, this Shanghai-based startup pivoted from computer vision to large language models. It monetizes differently: 210 million users across consumer apps paying through subscriptions and advertising, generating $30.5 million in annual revenue. Alibaba and Abu Dhabi's sovereign wealth fund are backing its debut.

### The Numbers Don't Lie—Yet

Both companies are valued around $4 billion heading into their listings. That sounds substantial until you do the math: OpenAI reportedly generates $13 billion annually, while Anthropic projects $9 billion. Zhipu and MiniMax are operating at roughly 3-4% of OpenAI's revenue scale.

But here's the critical point: they're also operating with radically smaller burn rates. Zhipu famously built its first competitive large model with just 4 million yuan in computing resources and 18 scientists. The founder Zhang Peng later reflected, "We really only had one chance to succeed." This efficiency reflects China's pragmatic AI philosophy—doing more with less.

### What's Really Happening Here

These IPOs aren't just corporate milestones. They're signals. Retail investors in Hong Kong went berserk: MiniMax's shares drew 1,350 times oversubscription, Zhipu exceeded 900 times. This reflects China's broader bet that the country can build sovereign AI capability independent of US technology.

The timing matters too. Chinese chipmakers just posted explosive IPO returns—Moore Threads surged 425% on day one, MetaX Integrated Circuits jumped 693%. Policymakers are deliberately funneling capital into AI and semiconductor infrastructure as part of a coordinated push for technological independence.

### The Real Test Ahead

"Most of these newly listed firms are still unprofitable and may stay that way as they scale," cautioned one Singapore-based equities analyst. That's the uncomfortable truth: the willingness to fund growth doesn't guarantee returns.

Meanwhile, China's tech giants—ByteDance, Alibaba, Tencent, Kuaishou—remain the probable long-term winners. Zhipu and MiniMax might capture specific niches: Zhipu in enterprise AI for state sectors, MiniMax in consumer-facing applications. Both are racing into video generation and Model-as-Service platforms to diversify revenue.

The question isn't whether these companies can compete with OpenAI on revenue today. It's whether they can survive the "Battle of One Hundred Models" price war, raise enough capital through these listings, and find profitable paths before investors lose patience. Their stock debuts this week will gauge market sentiment—but the real scoreboard appears six to twelve months from now.