#十二月行情展望 The current market is exhibiting typical characteristics of "range-bound decline and sentiment bottoming out." Bitcoin's market dominance remains at a relatively high level of 58.68%, indicating that in uncertain environments, capital still tends to flow toward the core assets.

However, trading volume has shrunk to around $147 billion, showing an overall decrease in market participation, with most investors choosing to stay on the sidelines. The "extreme fear" sentiment index is often a psychological signal that the market is approaching a short-term bottom. Historical experience tells us that when most people are fearful, the market may be brewing a turnaround. The key is whether we can distinguish between short-term emotional disturbances and long-term fundamental changes. The market is digesting the previous rapid decline through consolidation and is accumulating energy for the next directional move. Short-term volatility may persist, but excessive pessimism is unwarranted.

Macro Perspective: The Tug of War Between Liquidity Expectations and Reality

The Fed's "Expectation Game":
The market's high-probability pricing (85%-87%) for a rate cut in December should provide support for risk assets. However, recent strong employment data and the upcoming PCE inflation indicator have delayed expectations for immediate liquidity easing, resulting in short-term selling pressure. The market is waiting for clearer signals—the December 10 FOMC meeting statement is crucial. If it’s dovish, suppressed optimism could drive a rebound; if it’s hawkish, further downside support may be tested.

Global Liquidity "Contraction Effect":
The unwinding of yen carry trades and expectations of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan have triggered a temporary tightening of global dollar liquidity. This effect was fully evident in November, leading to the liquidation of nearly $1 billion in leveraged long positions in the crypto market. Meanwhile, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw net outflows in November, reflecting some institutional arbitrage activity and adding pressure to market liquidity.

Long-term Confidence as the "Ballast":
Notably, at the market low in November, some sovereign wealth funds chose to buy in, showing that large, long-term capital recognizes the underlying value of crypto assets. The actions of this "smart money" often carry forward-looking significance.

Macro Summary: The short-term market is troubled by "liquidity tightening expectations" and a "data waiting period," with sentiment leaning bearish. However, potential rate cut catalysts and long-term capital positioning lay a positive foundation for the medium- to long-term market outlook.

Technical Analysis: Directional Choice in a Key Range

Technical charts are the battleground for bulls and bears. Currently, Bitcoin is in a key consolidation range, about to make a directional choice.

Core Price Range:
Bitcoin is oscillating in the short term between the core range of $91,500 to $93,000. $91,500 is the critical support level; if it fails, more significant supports at $87,000 and even $80,600 may be tested. On the upside, $93,000 is direct resistance; a decisive breakout would target $96,846 next.

Technical Indicator Signals:
The RSI (Relative Strength Index) is at a neutral-to-bearish level of 55.47, showing neither overbought nor oversold conditions, with lackluster momentum and a wait-and-see stance. The MACD shows a bearish crossover, indicating short-term downside momentum remains dominant, but on smaller timeframes (such as the 15-minute chart), hesitation has appeared, suggesting a brief balance between bulls and bears may be forming here.

The Bollinger Bands show the price hugging the lower band, usually indicating high volatility and a potential rebound after "seller exhaustion."

Model Outlook:
Based on a combination of multiple technical models, Bitcoin is likely to fluctuate widely between $88,000 and $96,000 in December. If it breaks above $93,000 and holds, a year-end rally toward higher targets (such as $112,000-$116,000) cannot be ruled out.