Wall Street's getting spooked about the U.S. economy again, but one research shop thinks everyone's overreacting.

Their argument? Look at the actual spending data. Holiday shopping crushed expectations. Back-to-school season? Same story — parents weren't hesitating to drop cash. That's not what happens when consumers are panicking about their wallets.

Here's the pattern they're tracking: when Americans keep spending like this, it historically creates a feedback loop. Companies see demand, they hire more workers. More jobs mean more paychecks. More paychecks fuel more spending. The cycle feeds itself.

So yeah, headlines scream recession. But retail receipts tell a different story. Consumer confidence might wobble in surveys, yet credit cards keep swiping. That disconnect matters — because in the end, people's actions reveal more than their words.