Wheat Futures Show Mixed Signals—Spring Wheat Steals the Spotlight

Tuesday’s wheat futures wrapped with a split personality: Chicago soft red winter (SRW) managed modest gains of 2.25 cents, but Kansas City hard red winter (HRW) stumbled 1-3 cents lower. The real winner? Minneapolis spring wheat surged 6-9 cents on nearby contracts—a clear bull signal.

Here’s what spooked the market: USDA’s fresh Crop Progress report revealed winter wheat planting lagging expectations at 92% vs. the typical 95% pace. Worse, emergence sits at just 79%, trailing the 5-year average of 84%. The Brugler500 condition index dropped to 328 from 338 year-over-year, with only 45% of the crop in good/excellent shape (down from 49% last year)—red flags for yield concerns.

Contract closes:

• Dec 25 CBOT: $5.46½ (+2¼¢)
• Mar 26 CBOT: $5.59 (+½¢)
• Dec 25 KCBT: $5.26¼ (-2½¢)
• Mar 26 KCBT: $5.43 (-1¾¢)
• Dec 25 MGEX: $5.83¾ (+9¢)
• Mar 26 MGEX: $5.88 (+6¾¢)

Export watch: EU wheat shipments hit 9.05 MT since July 1, nearly matching last year’s pace—only 0.04 MMT behind. Supply dynamics remain tight.