$BTC market update! ⚠️

While 99% of CX is stressing out, we'll be looking at some of the fundamentals to see what is really going on.

I mean, I get it. Chart does not look pretty at this point:

- Broke weekly structure
- 4 weeks of consecutive bearish candles
- No signs of any reversal yet

But zooming out, we're currently in a high probability trading zone with that strong weekly demand POI.

Let's break it down:

Weekly Market Structure:
This is the most important part, so let’s start here.

You clearly lost weekly structure with a clean BOS to the downside.

That BOS was followed by strong displacement: large-bodied candles, little/no wicks, fully controlled by sellers.

Price has now tapped into the broad weekly demand zone we've been tracking.

This gives a context of:
Macro trend is corrective / bearish until proven otherwise, but location is major HTF demand, so responsive buying is expected.

RSI:
The RSI adds important nuance:

RSI has not entered weekly oversold territory yet, but daily is currently well in oversold territory.

Weekly momentum is pointing down but daily bottom could be close here. This aligns with the HTF demand POI we're currently trading in.

Historically on BTC, the more reliable weekly reversals occur when RSI either: sweeps oversold ✅, or creates a clean bullish divergence ⏳.

We're currently on the edge of that, but time is needed to form a potential bottom here.

MACD:
This is the big one for HTF momentum:

MACD is bearishly crossed
Histogram is accelerating downward, not slowing
No flattening of the signal lines yet
No divergence

This tells you:
Momentum has not shifted. Buyers reacted in demand, but sellers are still in control of the trend.

This matches what I said earlier:

I’d want to see mid-timeframe structure shift before calling a bottom.

On the weekly, nothing has shifted yet.

Brighter Data:
A quick look at the data tells me the following:

The weekly low is probably in as there is as both daily and weekly distance statistics show exhausted bear warnings. Meaning that there is less than 25% chance to move down lower.

Looking at the monthly stats, only 34% of months moved further than the current month, meaning that a lot more downside is not very probable as well.

Volume Analysis:
Very interesting here.

Current weekly selling volume is not increasing, it is declining even as price drops.

Falling volume on a selloff = Sellers are running out of fuel.

Combined with demand below and daily RSI in oversold territory, this is exactly the environment where:

Temporary bottoms form
Slow accumulation ranges build
Violent counter-trend squeezes are common

Summary:
Let’s combine all of it:

🔴 Bearish factors:
- Lost weekly structure
- MACD momentum down
- Weekly RSI trending down
- No HTF reversal signal yet
- No HTF displacement up yet
- No reclaim of broken levels

🟢 Bullish factors:
- Major weekly demand hit
- Daily RSI well in oversold territory
- Selling pressure on volume is declining
- Local absorption on lower timeframes

My Bias

Neutral-to-bearish on trend.

Bullish on location.

Awaiting confirmation.

Or in other words:

We’re sitting in the right place for a bottom, but the trend hasn’t shifted, yet.

That said, I'm currently building a long position, but for sizing up,

You want:

- 4H / Daily BOS
- Displacement up
- Demand left behind
- Volume expansion on the impulse
- RSI + MACD curling or diverging
- Reclaim of the most recent 4H supply

Until those occur:

Any bounce is still just a relief bounce inside a downtrend.