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$BTC
📊 New Week, New Data
Friday’s sell-off was one of the strongest moves we’ve seen in months, wiping out weeks of progress in a single session. After such a capitulation event, I’m expecting some chop or range formation before a clearer direction forms.
Price:
BTC is currently sitting above higher-timeframe demand and filling the daily wick below. Given that the dump was largely news-driven, we could see some mean reversion and consolidation between the monthly high and low.
Time (Monthly):
✅ 24% chance to take out the high
❌ 92% chance to take out the low if the high holds
🔴 Bias: bearish
Distance (Monthly):
✅ 23% chance to take out the high
❌ 73% chance for more displacement
🔴 Bias: neutral
Plan:
A retest of 120–122K could act as a magnet in the short term, but it seems unlikely we’ll take out the monthly high (126K) this month.
Expecting range-bound price action between 126K and 102K for now. I’ll be watching how we react to 112K and 120K potential areas for short-term opportunities once volatility settles.