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Theory-practice, chain reaction…
The theory producing the desired results may be possible in the laboratory. Even this becomes possible only through countless tests and repeatedly revising the theory. If the theory has been implemented outside the laboratory, if the subject is within the field of social sciences, if it affects the whole world, if it fundamentally changes the existing balances, if the theory has been directly implemented without being tested,… do you think it is possible to achieve the desired result?
The comprehensive customs tax package Trump announced yesterday aims to strengthen the USA. However, as I stated above, what kind of results it will produce is, in my opinion, uncertain.
Yesterday’s decision set will not only affect the trade of countries with the USA but also their trade with each other. At this stage, it may not be possible to perform metric impact analysis. It can be said that it may have an effect of reducing trade, slowing growth, and increasing prices.
What are the markets pricing in? Initially, it is being priced in that the US economy will slow down and the risk of inflation will increase. In fact, the risk of stagflation (recession and inflation at the same time) is also being speculated. This risk does not exist at the moment, but the new situation brings this risk-possibility to the table.
The growth-inflation risk is not only valid for the USA but also for other countries-regions. Therefore, the effects of Trump’s new decision may spread to a wider area in the coming days. At this point, how persistent Trump will be in implementation will be important. Whether he will back down or make exceptions will be a matter of follow-up. Also, whether the counterpart countries will retaliate, and if they will, at what rate and which products they will target, is critical.
The retaliation vicious cycle may make the process even more uncertain. In short, we will see whether Trump’s household account (theory) will match the marketplace (practice).
The President of the United States will continue to be the main determinant for the markets. The stone thrown by Trump will lead to chain reactions; the market will try to adapt and determine equilibrium points.
Trump is making decisions not only in the economic field but also in the geopolitical field. Peace with Russia has turned gray, tensions are rising in the Middle East (threat to Iran) and in the Pacific (Taiwan issue is heating up). Asset classes are diverging (this divergence may continue in the coming days).
Stocks, bonds, and currencies are giving different reactions. There is also divergence based on geography. However, there is one agreed-upon point, and that is the need for a safe haven. Gold continues to see demand.
Investors are initially moving away from the Dollar, but it is likely that other countries will also have growth-inflation problems.
Bond yields are falling (growth concerns and safe haven demand). Japan’s 10-year bond yield has dropped to the August 2024 level (1.34%). #四月行情预测分# Ethereum has bottomed, but professional investors are reluctant to buy ETH.
Ether is up 6.4% from its March 30 low of $1,768, but the altcoin has struggled to regain the $2,000 level. Some investors believe the decline is partly due to the decline of the memecoin market, which, while not specific to the Ethereum network, has significantly reduced activity across the decentralized applications (DApps) ecosystem and the broader crypto space.
Ether is currently down 44% since the beginning of the year, and derivatives metrics suggest investors are far from bullish and have little confidence in a strong near-term recovery. Evidence of this can be found in the premium Ether futures are trading at relative to spot markets.
While the figure has risen to 4% on April 2, it is still below the neutral 5% threshold, down from 2% on March 31. This data suggests that Ether investors are far from bullish despite the strengthening support at the $1,800 price level.
To assess whether whales and market makers trust Ether’s performance, it is necessary to analyze the ETH options market. Under neutral conditions, the 25 percent delta slope should be balanced between call (buy) and put (sell) options, usually ranging from -6 to 6 percent.
The Ether delta trend metric has pulled back from the 9% level seen on March 31, but the current reading of 7% suggests that risk aversion remains strong. The rising cost of hedging suggests that whales are fearful of further declines for ETH, suggesting that it may take longer for investors to regain confidence.
DApps remain strong despite revenue decline
It’s easy to attribute much of Ether’s price decline to the 49% drop in Ethereum DApps revenue between January and March. However, while the reduced network activity has limited the flow of new users and reduced overall demand for ETH, its advantages over traditional financial markets and dominance in the decentralized finance (DeFi) space remain intact.
Stablecoin assets on Ethereum are approaching an all-time high of $124.5 billion, with Ethereum still the undisputed leader with $49 billion in total value locked (TVL). This data suggests significant potential for ETH adoption, especially as new use cases emerge, such as structured products and more complex DeFi applications that leverage synthetic assets.
Despite early challenges with Metaverse implementations, waning interest in memecoins, and a sharp decline in unique token (NFT) marketplace activity, the Ethereum network continues to expand.
ETFs dampen individual trading enthusiasm
Rather than focusing solely on how professional investors are positioned, it’s also valuable to consider retail investor sentiment. Perpetual futures (reverse swaps) typically track spot prices closely, as leverage imbalances are adjusted by a fee known as the funding rate, which is charged every eight hours. In neutral markets, this rate fluctuates between 0.1 and 0.3 percent over a seven-day period.
The ETH perpetual funding rate has been neutral since March 31, suggesting that retail investors are not trying to catch a falling knife. The main driver behind this lack of enthusiasm is spot Ether exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which have seen net outflows of $37 million in the past two weeks.
While derivatives data is typically backward-looking and does not signal further declines in ETH prices, sentiment can change quickly given the positive momentum stemming from the Trump family’s investment in ETH and Eric Trump’s vocal support for Ether. For now, professional traders and retail investors remain cautious about ETH’s price outlook. #Market Analysis After Tariff Policy#The market impact of Trump's reciprocal tariffs and 10% baseline tariff on all imported goods will likely be significant. *Global Trade War Fears*: The move may escalate tensions and trigger retaliatory measures from affected countries, potentially leading to a full-blown trade war ¹. This could disrupt global supply chains, increase costs for consumers, and hinder economic growth.
*Market Volatility*: Investors can expect market volatility in the short term, particularly in industries heavily reliant on international trade. *Stock Market Reaction*: Wall Street has already shown signs of nervousness, with the S&P 500 closing 0.51% higher and Nasdaq settling with a gain of 0.87% ahead of the announcement ¹.
*Affected Sectors*: Some of the most vulnerable sectors include:
- *Automotive*: A 25% tariff on foreign-made automobiles will impact companies like Toyota, Volkswagen, and Nissan.
- *Agriculture*: India's agricultural exports might not be significantly impacted, but other countries may face challenges ¹.
- *Manufacturing*: Companies relying on imported goods, such as Nike and Adidas, may face increased costs due to tariffs on imports from Vietnam and other Asian countries ¹.
*Investment Strategies*: To navigate this uncertainty, consider:
- *Diversification*: Spread investments across various asset classes and industries to minimize exposure to any one sector.
- *Risk Management*: Hedge against potential losses by investing in safe-haven assets like gold, which is near record highs ¹.
- *Long-term Focus*: Maintain a long-term perspective, as trade policies can change rapidly.
Keep a close eye on market developments and adjust investment strategies accordingly. #四月行情预测分# Ethereum has bottomed, but professional investors are reluctant to buy ETH.
Ether is up 6.4% from its March 30 low of $1,768, but the altcoin has struggled to regain the $2,000 level. Some investors believe the decline is partly due to the decline of the memecoin market, which, while not specific to the Ethereum network, has significantly reduced activity across the decentralized applications (DApps) ecosystem and the broader crypto space.
Ether is currently down 44% since the beginning of the year, and derivatives metrics suggest investors are far from bullish and have little confidence in a strong near-term recovery. Evidence of this can be found in the premium Ether futures are trading at relative to spot markets.
While the figure has risen to 4% on April 2, it is still below the neutral 5% threshold, down from 2% on March 31. This data suggests that Ether investors are far from bullish despite the strengthening support at the $1,800 price level.
To assess whether whales and market makers trust Ether’s performance, it is necessary to analyze the ETH options market. Under neutral conditions, the 25 percent delta slope should be balanced between call (buy) and put (sell) options, usually ranging from -6 to 6 percent.
The Ether delta trend metric has pulled back from the 9% level seen on March 31, but the current reading of 7% suggests that risk aversion remains strong. The rising cost of hedging suggests that whales are fearful of further declines for ETH, suggesting that it may take longer for investors to regain confidence.
DApps remain strong despite revenue decline
It’s easy to attribute much of Ether’s price decline to the 49% drop in Ethereum DApps revenue between January and March. However, while the reduced network activity has limited the flow of new users and reduced overall demand for ETH, its advantages over traditional financial markets and dominance in the decentralized finance (DeFi) space remain intact.
Stablecoin assets on Ethereum are approaching an all-time high of $124.5 billion, with Ethereum still the undisputed leader with $49 billion in total value locked (TVL). This data suggests significant potential for ETH adoption, especially as new use cases emerge, such as structured products and more complex DeFi applications that leverage synthetic assets.
Despite early challenges with Metaverse implementations, waning interest in memecoins, and a sharp decline in unique token (NFT) marketplace activity, the Ethereum network continues to expand.
ETFs dampen individual trading enthusiasm
Rather than focusing solely on how professional investors are positioned, it’s also valuable to consider retail investor sentiment. Perpetual futures (reverse swaps) typically track spot prices closely, as leverage imbalances are adjusted by a fee known as the funding rate, which is charged every eight hours. In neutral markets, this rate fluctuates between 0.1 and 0.3 percent over a seven-day period.
The ETH perpetual funding rate has been neutral since March 31, suggesting that retail investors are not trying to catch a falling knife. The main driver behind this lack of enthusiasm is spot Ether exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which have seen net outflows of $37 million in the past two weeks.
While derivatives data is typically backward-looking and does not signal further declines in ETH prices, sentiment can change quickly given the positive momentum stemming from the Trump family’s investment in ETH and Eric Trump’s vocal support for Ether. For now, professional traders and retail investors remain cautious about ETH’s price outlook. 
