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#DecemberMarketOutlook
✨December 2025 is traditionally known as a positive month for financial markets. Expectations for a year-end rally, dubbed the "Santa Claus Rally," are supported by seasonality, the Fed's interest rate policy, and global economic data. The S&P 500 index is projected to close 2025 with a 19% gain and reach 8000 in 2026. However, risks such as increased volatility and a global growth slowdown also exist.
Major Economic Events and Meetings
December is filled with US employment data, inflation reports, and central bank decisions. The following lists high-impact events (times ET, focusing on the most significant):
✨December 1: ISM Manufacturing PMI (Expected: 48.5) and Construction Spending. Weak signals from the manufacturing sector may influence the market.
✨December 3: ISM Services PMI (Expected: 52.3). The performance of the services sector will shape the Fed's expectations for a soft landing.
✨December 5: Employment Report (Nonfarm Payrolls, Expected: 180K; Unemployment Rate: 4.1%). A weak report could accelerate the Fed's December rate cut.
✨December 10: Consumer Price Index (CPI, Expected: 2.7% YoY) and FOMC Meeting (Fed Rate Decision, Expected: 25 basis point cut). The Fed is expected to make a hawkish rate cut; the press conference could increase volatility.
✨December 11: Producer Price Index (PPI, Expected: 2.3% YoY). Persistent inflation pressures could push bond yields higher.
✨December 10: Bank of Canada (BoC) Rate Decision. The slowdown in the Canadian economy reinforces expectations for a rate cut.
✨December 17: Retail Sales (Expected: 0.3% YoY). Strength in consumer spending could support the holiday season rally.
✨December 17-18: ECB Meeting. Slowing Eurozone inflation (November Flash: 2.2% YoY) could prompt the ECB to continue its discount cycle.
✨December 19: GDP Final Forecast (Q3, Expected: 2.8% YoY). The revision of US growth will impact 2026 forecasts.
✨December 31: FOMC Minutes. Details of the December decision will inform January policy decisions.
Globally, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will make decisions on December 8, and the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) on December 11. Oil inventories (EIA, weekly) and PMI data will also stimulate energy and manufacturing markets.
December 2025 starts optimistically thanks to the Fed's cut and seasonality, but inflation and growth data will determine direction. Investors should closely monitor the week of December 5-10. While AI and productivity gains may support the market in the long term, diversification is essential. This outlook is based on current sources; market dynamics can change rapidly.