The crypto market enjoyed a much-needed boost on Tuesday evening after U.S. president Donald Trump announced a two-week ceasefire in Iran.
Bitcoin BTC$71,640.51 spiked to around $72,700 after settling in the $71,800 region, ether (ETH), meanwhile, is changing hands at $2,250 after posting a 6% gain in the past 24 hours.
The market remains trapped in the same range it has been since early February despite the overnight rise. Bitcoin will need to trade above $75,000 to confirm a breakout, while a rejection here could signal a move back to around $65,000.
Traders will be waiting cautiously for the ceasefire to end in a fortnight’s time to see whether a deal can be reached or the conflict will start up again.
Oil dipped heavily following the the news, with brent crude now trading at $94 per barrel, down from Tuesday’s high of $114.
Derivatives positioning
- Nearly $600 million in crypto futures bets have been liquidated for margin shortages in 24 hours. Bearish short positions account for over $420 million fo the tally, which shows that leveraged was skewed bearish likely anticipating intensification of military conflict between the U.S. and Israel. However, the ceasefire announcement caught the bears on the wrong side of the market.
- Still, cumulative open interest in crypto futures has increased by 7% to $114.26 billion, the highest since March 17, indicating renewed capital inflows.
- Ether open interest (OI) up 6% to 14.22 million ETH, the highest since March 29. This plus positive perp funding rates (longs paying shorts) and a positive 24-hour cumulative volume delta (CVD) scream traders bidding hard for upside.
- Bitcoin’s market displays a similar profile, with OI rising 1% alongside bullish funding rates and CVD.
- ZEC stands out with annualized perpetual funding rates at minus 56%. It shows that traders are aggressively chasing bearish short positions.
- Bitcoin’s 30-day implied volatility index, BVIV, continues to slide and has dropped to 46%, the lowest since Jan. 31. This signals market calm and bolsters the bullish case for spot prices.
- Ether’s 30-day implied volatility continues to fall as well, but remains slightly elevated relative to bitcoin.
- On Deribit, the relative richness of bitcoin and ether puts keeps narrowing versus calls, as the U.S.-Iran ceasefire clears the way for bullish spot price action.
- Block flows featured demand for ether strangles, a volatility-focused strategy.
Token talk
- Portions of the altcoin market outperformed bitcoin and its peers on Wednesday, with the likes of zcash (ZEC) posted a 23% move to the upside while layer 1 token monad (MON) increased by more than 15%.
- There were also notable gains for layer zero (ZRO) and ethena (ENA), which surged by 14% apiece to snap recent downtrends.
- AI tokens also performed well as NEAR, RENDER and TAO near double-digit gains.
- The bitcoin-dominant CoinDesk 20 (CD20) index is up by 4.9% in the past 24 hours, being beaten by the DeFi Select Index (DFX) and the CoinDesk Computing Select Index (CPUS), which are up by 7% each.
- The CoinDesk Overnight Rate (CDOR), which tracks lending and borrowing rates on Aave, continued its uptrend on Wednesday, hitting 3.51%, up from March 8’s total of 2.8%.
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