ARK Invest Report: Bitcoin confident buyers increased their holdings by 69%, and the bottom range hasn’t been tested yet

According to the “Bitcoin Quarterly Report for Q1 2026” released by ARK Invest on April 24, the holdings of Bitcoin “conviction buyers” increased from 2.13 million BTC to 3.6 million BTC, up 69% quarter-over-quarter. ARK Invest’s report said that the key support range for the firm’s defined cyclical bottoms (from $54,000 to $50,000) was not tested by the end of Q1.

Q1 Conviction Buyer Holdings Data and ETF Balances

(Source: Ark Invest report)

According to ARK Invest’s Q1 report, “conviction buyers” refer to the group of Bitcoin holders that hold long-term on-chain and continue to increase their purchases during periods when prices fall. The report’s data shows that conviction buyers’ holdings rose from 2.13 million BTC to 3.6 million BTC within three months, up 69% quarter-over-quarter, with the growth rate representing the fastest record since the 2020 Bitcoin cycle.

The report also noted that spot Bitcoin ETF balances, as of the market close in March 2026, were approaching 1.29 million BTC, remaining basically flat compared with Q4 2025. The original text of the ARK Invest report states: “This stability indicates that even amid significant downside volatility in the market, institutional confidence remains strong.”

Three Major On-Chain Support Levels Lost in Q1

According to ARK Invest’s Q1 report, in the first quarter of 2026 Bitcoin fell below the following three major on-chain support levels:

· 200-Day Moving Average (200-Day MA): $90,613

· Short-Term Holder Cost Basis: $82,767

· On-Chain Average: $78,039

The report also pointed out that the Percent Supply in Profit was compressed from 78% to 50% during Q1, but it did not fall below 50% by the end of the first quarter. ARK Invest’s report said that a drop below 50% is typically associated with deep market capitulation, and that this threshold was not broken during Q1.

How Different Institutions Define the Bottom Range

According to ARK Invest’s Q1 report, the firm-defined cyclical bottom key support range is: the Realized Price of about $54,000 to the Investor Price of about $50,000. The report said that historically, falling below this range is often related to the formation of global market bottoms, and that neither of these supports was broken by the end of Q1 2026.

In research reports published separately, Grayscale Research stated that Bitcoin’s enduring bottom lies between $65,000 and $70,000.

According to BeInCrypto, Benjamin Cowen, CEO of Into the Cryptoverse, said his base case is that the Bitcoin cycle will bottom out in October 2026.

Frequently Asked Questions

How does ARK Invest define “conviction buyers,” and what are its data sources?

According to ARK Invest’s 2026 Q1 report, “conviction buyers” refers to the group that holds long-term on-chain and continues to increase purchases during periods when the Bitcoin price declines. The data source is on-chain analysis data as of March 31, 2026.

What is the bottom support range defined by ARK Invest in its Q1 report?

According to ARK Invest’s Q1 report, the firm-defined bottom key support range is a Realized Price of about $54,000 to an Investor Price of about $50,000, and the report says that both of these supports were not tested by the end of Q1 2026.

What changes occurred in spot Bitcoin ETF Q1 holdings?

According to ARK Invest’s Q1 report, spot Bitcoin ETF balances were approaching 1.29 million BTC at the March 2026 market close, essentially flat compared with the previous quarter. The report’s original text defines this as “an expression of institutional confidence staying stable during the market’s downward move.”