K33: Bitcoin's decline sparks four-year cycle concerns, but it won't repeat the extreme bear markets of 2018 or 2022

Odaily Planet Daily News: K33 Research Director Vetle Lunde stated that Bitcoin has fallen approximately 40% since its October high, with an 11% decline in the past week alone, clearly influenced by a global decrease in risk appetite. Although recent price movements bear “disturbing similarities” to the deep sell-offs in 2018 and 2022, Lunde emphasized that “this time is different,” and he does not expect an 80% peak-to-trough retracement like in the previous two cycles.

Lunde pointed out that the current market environment differs from previous cycles due to increased institutional adoption, inflows into regulated products, and a loose interest rate environment. At the same time, several indicators commonly used to identify market bottoms have begun flashing signals:

On February 2, Bitcoin experienced a percentile trading day reaching 90, with high trading volume exceeding $8 billion, and the price retested the lows seen in 2025.

In the derivatives market, open interest and funding rates have both fallen into extreme negative territory, accompanied by approximately $1.8 billion in long liquidations. Historically, such situations often occur alongside rebounds.

Lunde emphasized that although bottom signals are emerging, they are not yet conclusive. Similar extreme trading volumes and derivatives indicators have appeared during false rebounds or mid-cycle corrections. Short-term key support levels are around $74,000; breaking below could accelerate downward movement, with targets near the November 2021 high of about $69,000 or the 200-week moving average at approximately $58,000.

Overall, Lunde believes that long-term holders are not under urgent selling pressure. The current price presents an attractive entry point for long-term investors and does not indicate a repeat of the extreme bear markets seen in 2018 or 2022.