Ethereum leverage surged by $3 billion ahead of the FOMC meeting; does the ETH price trend conceal a potential correction risk?

On January 16, news reports indicate that as the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting approaches, market sentiment in the crypto space is gradually becoming more cautious. Ethereum (ETH) experienced a slight pullback after reaching its weekly high, but leverage levels in the derivatives market continue to rise, sparking widespread discussion about “Ethereum leverage risk” and whether “ETH is facing a correction.”

From a price performance perspective, ETH has fallen about 3% from its weekly high of approximately $3400, but compared to the opening price at the start of the week, it still shows an increase of about 7%, indicating that the medium-term structure remains intact. Previously, after nearly two months of range-bound consolidation, Ethereum re-established itself above a key level. This recent pullback appears more like a technical correction after an upward move rather than a trend reversal.

However, derivatives data presents a different signal. Since this week, the open interest in Ethereum has significantly increased, with new leverage approaching $3 billion. The proportion of long positions in perpetual contracts on some mainstream trading platforms remains high. The divergence between a mild price correction and the rapid accumulation of speculative positions is testing ETH's stability ahead of macro events.

On the macro front, the uncertainty brought by the FOMC meeting is amplifying market volatility expectations. In an environment where the interest rate path remains unclear, high-leverage assets are more susceptible to emotional shocks. Therefore, whether ETH's current correction is merely a short-term consolidation or a prelude to a deeper adjustment remains to be seen.

It is worth noting that Ethereum's on-chain fundamentals continue to show resilience. Data from Glassnode indicates a significant increase in new addresses and new wallets, with daily new wallets reaching 393,000. Additionally, on January 15, the number of daily transactions on the Ethereum network rose to approximately 2.8 million, a 50% increase compared to a week earlier, setting a new all-time high.

The synchronized growth in activity and user base reflects ongoing capital inflows and genuine demand for usage. This provides a fundamental support for ETH's price, even in the face of short-term macro and leverage pressures. Moving forward, the outcome of the FOMC meeting may become a key event to test the strength of Ethereum bulls and bears.