Bitcoin retraces to 87,000, tech stocks help the S&P 500 reach a new high again, and the probability of not lowering interest rates in January next year exceeds 80%.

The S&P 500 reached a historic high on Christmas Eve, driven by AI weights and strong GDP; the independence of The Federal Reserve (FED) and merger trends will be the focus of subsequent observations. (Previous summary: Fidelity analyst: Bitcoin will be a “fallow year” in 2026, support range 65,000 to 75,000 dollars ) (Background information: Market share dropped from 80% to 20%, what happened to Hyperliquid?)

Last night (23rd), Bitcoin plummeted after the opening of the US stock market, hitting a low of $86,578, once again dampening the bullish momentum. As of the time of writing, it is reported at $87,658, returning to the previous range of fluctuations. With the Christmas holidays approaching, BTC may stay in this range for a longer period.

The four major U.S. stock indices closed higher.

However, the U.S. stock market remains strong, with the S&P 500 Index closing at 6,909.79 points, setting a new high. The driving forces behind this are AI leader Nvidia and unexpectedly strong, delayed third-quarter GDP data.

The U.S. Department of Commerce reported a revised GDP for the third quarter at 4.3%, which is a full 1 percentage point higher than market expectations, with personal consumption expenditures growing by 3.5% being the biggest highlight. The interest rate path was originally focused on a rate cut cycle in 2026.

All four major indices closed in the green: the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 67 points, closing at 43,150 points; the S&P 500 rose 0.46%; the Nasdaq rose 0.57%, closing at 18,850 points; the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 0.55%, closing at 5,210 points.

Market consensus: No action in January

According to CME FedWatch data, the probability that the Federal Reserve (FED) will maintain the current range of 3.5% to 3.75% has risen to 85.6%, with only 14.4% expecting a rate cut of 1 basis point (25 basis points). This shift corresponds with a moderate rebound following the release of November CPI, indicating that inflation has not yet dropped to the Fed's target range.

Chairman Powell emphasized earlier:

The current interest rate is in a good position, and the next step will depend on data adjustments.

Vice Chairman Hamak recently stated that there are greater concerns about the stickiness of inflation, and that “it is more appropriate for interest rates to be maintained at least until spring.”