Trading Time: Super Central Bank Week Approaching, Bitcoin Faces Direction Choice; Short-term Requires Clear Breakthrough Signal

Daily Market Highlights and Trend Analysis, produced by PANews.

1. Market Observation

According to the latest analysis from Wall Street, the global economy and financial markets are undergoing profound structural changes. By 2026, the core risk facing the US economy may shift from traditional recession to a recession directly caused by a stock market crash. The approximately 2.5 million “excess retirees” who retired early due to stock market prosperity have consumption capabilities closely linked to stock performance, forming a highly sensitive demand side for the market. The Federal Reserve is caught between combating stubborn inflation and maintaining financial stability. Analysts believe that the Fed may prioritize avoiding a market crash, tolerate higher inflation, and adopt aggressive rate cuts during economic weakness. Meanwhile, global central bank policies are diverging; the Bank of Japan is expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points to 0.75% at the December 19 meeting, reaching a 30-year high, which could alter global capital flows. The European Central Bank is expected to keep rates unchanged, while the Bank of England may complete its last rate cut of this cycle. Against this backdrop, upcoming US non-farm payrolls and CPI data are highly anticipated. US stocks are beginning to diverge, with funds rotating into undervalued European markets, adding complexity and uncertainty to global asset allocation in 2026.

In the AI sector, market enthusiasm is facing severe reality checks. Recently, Oracle’s stock plummeted 14.8% over two days amid rumors of earnings falling short and project delays, with a significant market cap decline. Although the company denied delays in its data center projects for OpenAI, earnings reports showed slowing growth in core cloud revenue, while capital expenditure soared to $12 billion, raising full-year guidance by 43% to $50 billion, with free cash flow deteriorating to negative $10 billion, shifting toward a “high investment, slow return” model. Similarly, chip giant Broadcom reported better-than-expected revenue and profit but saw its stock plunge 11.4% due to investor dissatisfaction with its $73 billion AI order backlog, and the company did not provide full 2026 AI revenue guidance. This sentiment has spread across the semiconductor industry, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index falling over 5%, and Nvidia dropping more than 3%. Additionally, Fermi, an AI infrastructure company founded by former government officials, saw its stock halved at one point after a major client withdrew a $150 million investment commitment. Concerns about the sustainability of AI computing power spending and high valuation bubbles are becoming more apparent. Future industry focus will shift to the Mooresoft MUSA Developer Conference and ByteDance’s Engine Conference, expecting new GPU architectures and the update of AI assistant “Doubao.”

In the context of macro uncertainty and industry adjustments, Bitcoin is experiencing a critical correction phase. Currently, Bitcoin has traded below its key on-chain cost basis (around $102,000 to $105,000) for nearly two months, and ETF buying power has significantly weakened. Analysts point out that this is due to declining risk appetite among traditional capital and the convergence of futures basis from a peak of 25% to less than 5%, leading to the exit of arbitrage funds. External pressures are also evident; markets expect the Bank of Japan to raise rates to 0.75% on December 19. Based on historical data, some analysts warn that previous rate hikes by the BOJ have been accompanied by Bitcoin declines of over 20%, raising the risk of prices falling further to $70,000. Although Strategy founder Michael Saylor hints at continued buying during the dip, market opinions vary: pessimists believe a bear market has begun, with technical patterns pointing to deep corrections to $70,000 or even $50,000; optimists believe the short-term target of $87,000 has been reached and are now long, with a long-term target of $112,000. In the short term, the market generally expects prices to fluctuate between $87,000 and $93,000, awaiting clear breakout signals.

Compared to Bitcoin’s volatility, Ethereum shows a “lagging” weak consolidation, offering a different perspective for long-term investors. Analyst EliZ notes that in early cycles, Ethereum typically underperforms Bitcoin because capital prefers the “safer” Bitcoin, but this is not a real weakness; rather, it is building strength for subsequent explosive growth. Historically, when Bitcoin’s rally slows, capital rotates into Ethereum, which often experiences rapid and fierce upward movements. Therefore, long-term investors see current price corrections as good opportunities for phased accumulation. Technically, analyst CyrilXBT observes that Ethereum is attempting to build a bottom near $3,050 but remains hindered by the key 50-day moving average (around $3,281). If it can break through and hold above this resistance, it may open room to rise above $3,500; otherwise, it could retest support levels at $3,000 or even $2,800. Notably, despite cautious market sentiment, on-chain data shows that a whale wallet known as “Bitcoin OG” has recently increased its Ethereum long positions by about $555 million, indicating strong confidence among some smart funds in Ethereum’s future.

2. Key Data (as of December 15, 13:00 HKT)

(Source: GMGN, CoinAnk, Upbit, Coingecko, SoSoValue, CoinMarketCap)

• Bitcoin: $89,604 (YTD -4.24%), daily spot trading volume $35.43 billion
• Ethereum: $3,128 (YTD -6.26%), daily spot trading volume $20.05 billion
• Fear & Greed Index: 16 (Extreme Fear)
• Average GAS: BTC: 1.2 sat/vB, ETH: 0.04 Gwei
• Market Share: BTC 58.5%, ETH 12.4%
• Upbit 24-hour trading volume ranking: BTC, XRP, ETH, MOVE, SOL
• 24-hour BTC long/short ratio: 47.91% / 52.09%
• Sector gains and losses: Overall decline in crypto market, Layer2 down 3.59%, RWA down 3.41%
• 24-hour liquidation data: Total 96,924 traders liquidated, total liquidation amount $267 million, with BTC $102 million, ETH $56.55 million, SOL $12 million

3. ETF Flows (as of December 12)

• Bitcoin ETF: +$287 million
• Ethereum ETF: +$209 million
• Solana ETF: +$33.6 million

4. Today’s Preview

• US SEC Cryptocurrency Working Group to hold a Financial Regulation and Privacy Roundtable on December 15
• Aster announces S3 airdrop schedule: open for checkers on December 1, tokens claimable on December 15
• Yala launches institutional BTC exit process and announces retail redemption plan preview for December 15
• Hong Kong High Court to hear JPEX case with 8 defendants on December 15; Xu Zhengyu states regulatory updates will be provided
• Daylight launches new DeFi protocol DayFi, with a $50 million pre-deposit event starting December 16
• US November unemployment rate: expected 4.4% (December 16, 21:30)
• US November non-farm payroll change(万人): expected 5 (December 16, 21:30)

Top 100 cryptocurrencies by market cap today: MYX Finance up 12.6%, Rain up 6.4%, Ultima up 3.5%, Canton Network up 3.4%, TRON up 2.5%.

5. Hot News

• Data: Tokens such as ZRO, ARB, STRK will experience large unlocks, with ZRO unlocking worth about $38.6 million
• Weekly Preview | HASHKEY is expected to list for trading on December 17; Coinbase plans to launch prediction markets and tokenized stocks
• Lighter TVL surpasses $1.456 billion, but recently experienced a net outflow of over $40.59 million in a single day
• Japan and South Korea stock markets mostly decline at opening; Korea KOSPI down 2.67%
• Robinhood achieves stock tokenization on Arbitrum, market cap surpasses $13 million
• A wallet suspected to be associated with Matrixport withdrew 3 million ASTER from Binance
• A wallet marked as ZORA transferred about 52.52 million tokens worth over $2.6 million to three new addresses