Bitcoin extends weakness after the Fed’s third rate cut as on-chain data show realized losses at -18%, still far from the -37% capitulation zone seen at past bottoms.
Summary
- The Fed delivered a third straight 25 bps cut to 3.5%–3.75%, with one Trump-appointed official pushing for a deeper 50 bps move.
- On-chain data from Ali Charts show Bitcoin trader realized losses near -18%, still well above the -37% level that has marked major cycle lows.
- Short-term holders are selling into weakness while long-term holders accumulate, keeping BTC pinned near support despite looser monetary policy.
Bitcoin (BTC) may experience additional price declines despite three consecutive interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, according to on-chain data analysis.
The Federal Reserve announced its third consecutive rate reduction on Wednesday, lowering the federal funds rate by 0.25 percentage points to a range of 3.5% to 3.75%. Trump appointee Stephen Miran dissented from the decision, advocating instead for a larger 0.50 percentage point cut.
FED delivers 3rd straight rate cut
On-chain metrics indicate Bitcoin has not yet reached its historical bottom, according to data from Ali Charts. The analysis shows realized losses currently stand at negative 18%, well above the negative 37% threshold that has historically signaled strong buying opportunities during previous market cycles.
Top Bitcoin holders have sold or redistributed 36,500 $BTC since the start of the month. pic.twitter.com/zK3ohc86zn
— Ali (@alicharts) December 12, 2025
Realized losses measure actual losses incurred by traders when selling assets, distinguishing them from unrealized losses on held positions. Lower readings typically indicate capitulation events, which have historically provided entry points for long-term investors.
Despite the Fed’s monetary easing policy, Bitcoin continues to trade at support levels. Traditional safe-haven assets have outperformed digital assets in recent periods, according to market observers. Policy analyst Daugherty noted that President Trump and Scott Besent had predicted the policy shift.
The dissenting vote reflects internal debate regarding the magnitude of rate cuts. Markets are pricing in potential additional cuts through 2026.
On-chain data provides context for current price movements. The negative 37% realized loss threshold has historically preceded strong Bitcoin recoveries across multiple market cycles. Current readings suggest selling pressure has not yet reached capitulation levels.
Market structure shows divergent behavior between different holder cohorts. Short-term holders are applying selling pressure, while long-term holders continue accumulating at current price levels, according to the analysis. This divergence contributes to ongoing market volatility.
Some market participants attribute Bitcoin’s weakness to profit-taking following previous gains, while others cite regulatory uncertainty as a factor affecting market sentiment.
Disclaimer: The information on this page may come from third parties and does not represent the views or opinions of Gate. The content displayed on this page is for reference only and does not constitute any financial, investment, or legal advice. Gate does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information and shall not be liable for any losses arising from the use of this information. Virtual asset investments carry high risks and are subject to significant price volatility. You may lose all of your invested principal. Please fully understand the relevant risks and make prudent decisions based on your own financial situation and risk tolerance. For details, please refer to
Disclaimer.
Related Articles
BTC 15-minute rise of 0.53%: Institutional derivatives adding positions drives a short-term rebound
Between 2026-04-20 01:30 and 2026-04-20 01:45 (UTC), the BTC spot price fluctuated within a narrow range of 74290.9 to 74709.7 USDT. Over the 15-minute period, the return was +0.53%, with a range of 0.56%. Overall market volatility increased, drawing attention, but the number of active on-chain addresses remained steady, with no sign of extreme capital movements.
The main driver behind this move is institutional capital inflows into mainstream futures platforms and adjustments to derivatives position structures, especially CME futures open interest (OI), which rose against the trend by 2.61%. Meanwhile, some institutions added to defensive hedges and positioned for short-term rebounds within the price consolidation range. In addition, short-term Put options trading on platforms such as Deribit was active: the main contracts were concentrated on near-term downside protection, indicating that derivatives capital has increased its allocation to defensive strategies and that the spot market has passively followed the upward move.
In addition, ETF funds recorded $1.87 billion in net inflows in Q1, easing the consecutive net outflow trend seen earlier before March and providing medium-term background support for spot prices. Although on-chain active addresses over 1 hour stayed in the 19500–19600 range without abnormal increases or decreases, structural behavior by institutions across the derivatives and ETF markets converged to push short-term price volatility higher. There were no signals of sell pressure from retail traders or major whales, and no large transfers or extreme liquidation events; overall momentum came from institutional-level maneuvering.
It is worth noting that the derivatives market Put/Call ratio remains on the high side. If the price cannot continue moving upward, short-term exit pressure could intensify at any time. With overall OI shrinking, the activity of leveraged funds in the market weakens. Going forward, it is important to focus on changes in derivatives positions, ETF fund flows, and the in-and-out movements of active capital on-chain in order to respond to the risk of sharp short-term volatility. For more market information, it is recommended to continuously track relevant data indicators and capital-level anomalies.
GateNews3h ago
BTC falls 0.44% in 15 minutes: ETF fund outflows and derivatives shorts add to the slide
From 21:45 to 22:00 (UTC) on April 19, 2026, the BTC price dropped by 0.44% within 15 minutes. The candlestick range was 74,366.1 to 74,789.3 USDT, with an amplitude of 0.57%. Short-term volatility was concentrated. During this period, the trading volume for large orders rose significantly, market attention increased, and volatility intensified.
The main driving force behind this deviation was that U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a large net outflow of $291 million over two days from April 18 to April 19. This reflected institutional funds pulling away in the short term, which led to a marked increase in sell pressure in the spot market. At the same time, BTC perpetual contract
GateNews7h ago
BTC falls below 74000 USDT
Gate News bot message, Gate market data shows that BTC has fallen below 74000 USDT, with a current price of 73979.6 USDT.
CryptoRadar7h ago
BTC dips slightly by 0.53% in 15 minutes: whale transfers increase sell pressure and amplified liquidity widen the short-term drop
From 17:45 to 18:00 (UTC) on 2026-04-19, within 15 minutes BTC’s spot price fell -0.53%, with a price range of 74648.4 to 75212.8 USDT and a swing of 0.75%. During this period, market attention increased, volatility clearly accelerated, and the magnitude of the abnormal move exceeded typical levels for the same timeframe.
The main driver behind this abnormal move was that large-whale accounts concentrated transfers of BTC to a certain major exchange; the All Exchanges Whale Ratio (EMA14) rose to a near-ten-month high, and sell pressure increased significantly in a short time, becoming a direct cause of the spot price decline.
GateNews11h ago
BTC falls below 75,000 USDT
Gate News bot message, Gate quotes show that BTC has fallen below 75,000 USDT, with a current price of 74,985.2 USDT.
CryptoRadar11h ago
