Após a Reserva Federal dos EUA ter parado a redução do seu balanço, já surgiram sinais de tensão na liquidez dos bancos.

[BlockBeats] Recent liquidity issues in the banking system are more serious than many people think. As of December 1st, the Federal Reserve has officially stopped quantitative tightening, but the problem is that bank reserves have already dropped to a dangerous level—historically, every time reserves reach this level, the funding market runs into trouble.

Looking at the data, the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) has already started to periodically hit the upper bound of the policy rate corridor, which is a clear signal of liquidity stress. To put it plainly, the US banking system is gradually entering a state of cash shortage.

Therefore, for this FOMC meeting, the market is actually not focused on the 25 basis point rate cut (which is basically a done deal); the real focus is on how the Federal Reserve will operate its balance sheet going forward. According to sources, the Fed is very likely to make a clear statement at the meeting, or to reveal through the implementation note how they plan to launch the Reserve Management Purchase (RMP) program.

According to Evercore ISI’s calculations, this program could start as early as January 2026, with the Fed buying $35 billion in Treasury securities each month. This adds up to over $400 billion of balance sheet expansion in a year. If this scale is indeed implemented, it will significantly improve liquidity across the entire financial market.