Look at that... the crypto fear and greed index dropped to 12 today. It was at 16 yesterday. We're talking about extreme fear, you know? The thing is, this Bitcoin fear and greed index has been quite low for a while, it's not just a one-day drop. What caught my attention is that the market has been in this deep negative sentiment for an entire month. It's not an isolated news reaction, it's a pattern. People are really afraid, tightening the strings of the stock market, avoiding entering new positions. When the fear and greed index gets this low, it usually means fewer people are willing to take risks. Sentiment moves the crypto market as much as any other factor. When fear dominates for so long, it creates a cycle: sellers keep selling, buyers wait for stronger signals. Some believe that extreme fear could be a sign that the market is becoming overbought, like a possible breaking point. But that doesn't guarantee anything, it only indicates that emotions are now leaning toward the defensive side. For day traders, this could mean ongoing volatility. For long-term investors, it's just another reminder that crypto goes through these intense periods of pessimism before confidence returns. For now, the message is clear: fear is in control.

Overall, the downward trend hasn’t changed. Please don’t start screaming just because of a brief pullback that “the bull is here”!!! Not even the 120-day moving average has managed to stabilize and hold, let alone break upward—so please don’t chase longs. I’ve already reminded everyone many times before. Also, right now, liquidity across the entire financial market is still being continuously tightened, and there’s no reversal. There hasn’t been any real “breakout” yet, and there’s no major “bad news” or crisis. The role that current geopolitical conflicts are playing right now is quite confusing—especially over the short to medium term. You can see it: when geopolitical tensions ease, and with the strong rebound in US stocks, a bunch of people start popping champagne, and even some brainless folks say “the bull is here,” going on and on about “if you don’t get in now, you’ll miss the train!” Let me emphasize again: oil prices are still trading in high-level ranges, moving back and forth and shaking people out. Also, spot and futures have already seriously decoupled—this is worth our attention!! Liquidity is still continuously shrinking. For the current crypto sector, it’s the most sensitive to liquidity, and it’s also the first place where that shows clearly. Bitcoin has fallen from 120,000 all the way down to a range starting with 5, and after a long round of back-and-forth washouts, it has rebounded back to the 7s. In crypto, this is the fastest sector to clear risk; there’s a 70% chance there will still be one final drop. Then it will grind out the bottom a bit more below. Let’s not be in a hurry—wait a little longer, and then we can position for long-term spot holdings. Follow Old Wang’s lead. $BTC $ETH

I just reviewed the movements of the cryptocurrency ETFs from yesterday and things are getting interesting. The spot Bitcoin ETF experienced a significant net outflow of around 87 million, with Fidelity and Grayscale showing selling pressure. Meanwhile, the Ethereum ETF maintains a positive flow of approximately 28 million, which contrasts quite a bit with what happened with Bitcoin. The curious thing is that the Ethereum ETF continues to attract institutional capital when BTC is in the red. Fidelity is reducing Bitcoin positions, but it seems there is more confidence on the Ethereum side for now. Quite mixed signals from institutional money, honestly. The Ethereum ETF remains the leader in positive flows, while Bitcoin looks weaker. We’ll have to see if this continues or if it’s just a one-off movement.