Taking DOGE as an example, it fell by 55%, and to rise back it needs 122%. Even if the so-called alt season comes, if your position is not good, with a bit of luck you might recoup investment, but the vast majority of altcoins seem to double or triple, but they can never return to your Enter a Position price.

Currently, a new five-minute central range has formed. Before the news is released, from a volatility perspective, my trading plan is to only go long when the price touches the lower edge of the central range.

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Everyone is saying that xx's life needs to go on Spot, leaving aside the news. Simply looking at the trend, it indeed has the basis to continue the pump. I will observe whether the new five-minute center can maintain within the black box range, and participate in the Build a Position game in the third segment of the center.
If the pullback before the news hits touches the upper edge of the 30-minute central axis (position of the green arrow), then give up.

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I expect a pullback for BTC next week. It's still unclear whether the rise of fet here is a temporary rebound or an independent market trend. I can move the stop loss up to 0.2635 to reduce the pullback space. I will observe over the next two days whether a five-minute 3-buy setup appears (as shown in the second chart). If the five-minute 3-buy is established, I can continue to hold; if not, it will turn into a complex five-minute central oscillation market.

fet is a structure I like to participate in, with a low loss and a good risk-reward ratio. I have already bought some Spot, let's hold on and decide on the take profit position after the right-side structure is complete.

Recently, I’ve been rereading Taleb’s *Fooled by Randomness*. There were some things I couldn’t understand the first time I read it, but after two years, I’ve come back to it and gained much deeper insight. The book constructs a complete theoretical system of randomness, with its core conceptual framework centered around randomness, extending to key concepts such as black swan events, survivorship bias, path dependence, probability blindness, skewed distributions, and more. These concepts do not exist in isolation but form an interconnected and progressively layered theoretical network.
Within

BTC Large-Scale Trend Expectations and Plans
Currently, BTC is undergoing a daily-level correction, with an internal 4-hour, 3-leg adjustment structure. Since the third leg is quite strong and there is no obvious 30-minute divergence within it, I don't think the third leg is over yet. I am more inclined toward the red (30-minute level) direction. That is, first, there will be a 5-minute central oscillation rebound within this range to correct the oversold conditions, restoring the 4- to 6-hour indicators, and then making a new low to trigger a 4-hour rebound (green path).
At that point, the ma

There are always some people who look down on reading candlestick charts and Chan theory structures, thinking these are useless, fake, and deceptive.
However, for this recent BTC top and big drop, those who saw it coming were basically all technical analysts. The other camps—macro, value, data-driven, or orthodox Wall Street elites—seemingly none of them did. At least, I didn’t see any.
During last month’s and early this month’s livestreams, when predicting the overall trend for BTC, only Chan theory told me that the weekly uptrend was about to end. At that time, almost no one online was talki

At present, it seems that Bitcoin has stabilized, with key resistance around $93,000 to $93,300. I might take some profit here for a short-term trade, and I won't focus on the resistance for Ethereum, just keeping in sync with Bitcoin.

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BTC 93000 here is the key support of the 10-day line, whether a bottom is being formed here is currently judged to be too early, because the level is too large, one K is 10 days, the support at this moment only brings an oversold rebound at the level below 8 hours.
The short-term pressure is at 96900 for 2 hours, with key pressure around 99000 for 4 hours, and there are still 3 selling expectations in the 30-minute chart.
So the future trend can basically be judged as here we are going to enter a new 30-minute central consolidation.
If this week continues to make new lows, it's very danger