#比特币重回跌势 From the perspective of intraday market trends and market sentiment, the overall cryptocurrency market has continued its downward trend over the past 24 hours, with the global crypto total market capitalization falling back to $2.35 trillion, a 1% decline in 24 hours. Bitcoin, as the market leader, has shown significant pressure. Since losing the $70,000 level on March 8, bearish forces have been continuously released, hitting a two-week low overnight, with the derivatives market experiencing intense volatility simultaneously. Data shows that the total amount of Bitcoin-related liquidations across the network in the past 24 hours exceeded $320 million, with over 78% of these being long positions. The Bitcoin futures open interest on the Bn platform has dropped to a long-short ratio of 1.78, and the funding rate for perpetual contracts remains in negative territory. The market fear and greed index is only 8, indicating extreme fear, and investor risk aversion sentiment has significantly increased.
This round of market weakness is the result of multiple factors including macroeconomic suppression, geopolitical risks, capital selling pressure, and regulatory divergence. On the macro front, market focus is on the upcoming US February CPI data to be released on March 11. Currently, CME’s “FedWatch” tool shows a 97% probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in March. The first rate cut is likely to be delayed until the second half of 2026. The sustained high-interest-rate environment continues to exert long-term pressure on risk asset valuations.
Geopolitically, ongoing conflicts in the Middle East have caused a surge in crude oil prices. Safe-haven capital is flowing into traditional safe assets like gold and the US dollar. The narrative of Bitcoin as “digital gold” has temporarily failed, with the 30-day correlation coefficient with the S&P 500 rising to 0.74, and its linkage with risk assets strengthening significantly, further intensifying downward pressure.
In terms of liquidity and regulation, there has been no effective support for the market. On the institutional side, Bitcoin spot ETFs continue to see net outflows, with a daily net outflow of $450 million. Major asset management firms are reducing their holdings, and the buying power that previously supported the market has significantly diminished. Coupled with nearly $6 billion worth of token unlocks in March, short-term selling pressure continues to be released.
Regulatory environments are showing a dual pattern: domestically, virtual currency activities across the entire chain are still deemed illegal financial activities, with ongoing tightening; internationally, Hong Kong has officially issued its first stablecoin licenses, and the EU’s MiCA regulation will fully come into effect on March 25, steadily advancing global compliance, but short-term catalysts for a market rally are lacking.
From a technical perspective, the daily chart for Bitcoin has broken below the 20-day moving average (around $68,500), damaging the medium-term rebound trend. The moving average system shows a bearish alignment, with the MACD green bars continuing to expand, indicating dominant bearish momentum. The RSI has fallen to around 35, approaching oversold territory, suggesting a short-term technical correction is needed, but the rebound momentum remains weak. On the 4-hour chart, the price has broken below all short-term moving averages, with a complete downward channel. Key support is concentrated around the $66,500 weekly level. If this level is broken, the price could further decline toward the $64,500 historical average turnover cost zone. The first resistance is at $68,500, with strong resistance in the $70,000–$70,500 range. Only a volume breakout above this zone can reverse the short-term weakness.
Looking ahead, Bitcoin is likely to remain in a weak oscillation between $66,000 and $69,000 in the short term, with its trend highly dependent on the March 11 US CPI data. If inflation data exceeds expectations, it will further reinforce the expectation that the Fed will maintain high interest rates for longer, likely causing Bitcoin to break below $66,000 and enter a new downtrend. If inflation data meets or falls below expectations, market expectations for rate cuts will increase, and Bitcoin may see a technical rebound, testing the $69,000–$70,000 range. In the medium to long term, Bitcoin’s network hash rate has hit a new all-time high, and the long-term fundamentals have not fundamentally changed. However, the market still faces multiple uncertainties in the short term, and investors should remain highly cautious, strictly control their positions, and avoid blindly bottom-fishing.
