#我在Gate广场过新年 Regulatory crackdown + market bloodbath! After Bitcoin halved, it violently rebounded 11%. Is this a fleeting bounce or the start of a counterattack?

The start of the crypto market in 2026 has been truly thrilling! In just a few months, Bitcoin plummeted from its all-time high of $125,000 to $60,000, while Ethereum dropped from nearly $5,000 to $1,918, a decline of 59.1%. Amid widespread market despair, on February 9, Bitcoin suddenly surged 11%, returning to the $70,000 level, with Ethereum also rising sharply. Is this deep V-shaped reversal a mere bounce or the beginning of a fierce counterattack?
Analysis of the Three Major Hotspots in the Crypto Market
1. The strictest regulation in history implemented, offshore issuance of RMB stablecoins banned
On February 6, the People's Bank of China, together with eight other departments, issued the "Notice on Further Preventing and Disposing of Risks Related to Virtual Currencies," reaffirming that virtual currency-related activities are illegal financial activities. For the first time, it explicitly states that no organization or individual is allowed to issue RMB-pegged stablecoins abroad. This marks a regulatory upgrade following the 2021 "Document 237," indicating that domestic regulation of virtual currencies has entered a new phase.
2. South Korean exchange's shocking error, mistakenly issued 620,000 Bitcoins
Due to employee error, a South Korean exchange mistakenly distributed over $40 billion worth of 620,000 Bitcoins to 695 users, causing intense market volatility. Although the exchange responded quickly, recovering 99.7% of the mistakenly sent assets within 20 minutes, this incident exposed the fragility of the cryptocurrency market and prompted regulatory authorities in South Korea to review the exchange's internal controls.
3. Deep V-shaped market rebound, over 91,400 traders wiped out before dawn
On February 9, Bitcoin was trading at $70,900, up 4.27% intraday; Ethereum also rose, trading at $2,090, up 3.8%. However, during this rebound, over 91,400 traders were liquidated in the past 24 hours, with total liquidation exceeding $300 million. During yesterday’s sharp decline, long positions accounted for most liquidations; today’s rebound saw a significant increase in short liquidations, indicating fierce battle between bulls and bears.

Deep Analysis of Bitcoin Trends
Currently, technical analysis shows Bitcoin’s 4-hour Bollinger Bands opening upward, with EMA30 and EMA15 forming a golden cross for support.
Key price levels:
Support: Short-term support at $70,800, with a more critical long-term bull-bear dividing line at $68,600–$69,000
Resistance: The current breakout above $72,000 suggests short-term resistance at $73,000–$75,000
Divergence of Institutional Views
Pessimistic: Bloomberg analyst Mike McGlone predicts Bitcoin will fall to $50,000, and if it rebounds near $100,000, caution should be exercised in shorting. "Big short" Michael Burry warns that Bitcoin has exposed its purely speculative nature.
Cautiously Optimistic: Bernstein believes the short-term crypto bear market could reverse within 2026, with Bitcoin potentially bottoming around $60,000. Matrixport analysis states that after a capitulation sell-off, Bitcoin is attempting a countertrend rebound.

Ethereum’s Full Technical Outlook
Technical Resistance
Ethereum has entered the breakdown phase of an inverse cup and handle pattern, with a downside target around $1,665, representing a potential 25% decline from current levels. On-chain MVRV extreme deviation price band’s lower bound is near $1,725, a level where ETH has historically bottomed and rebounded multiple times.
Key Price Levels:
Support: Short-term support at $1,990; a break below could lead to a decline toward $1,900
Target: Short-term rebound target at $2,200; a breakout above could see medium-term targets at $2,450–$2,500
Long-Term Potential Remains
Despite short-term pressure, discussions about Ethereum surpassing Bitcoin in performance by 2026 are heating up. Ethereum’s total transaction volume in 2026 is projected to grow approximately 6.8% year-over-year, reaching an average of 2.05 million transactions per day, reflecting continued growth in DeFi, Layer 2, and staking activities.
Today’s Trading Strategies (February 9)
Bitcoin Trading Recommendations
Short-term: Above $70,800, consider short-term long positions with stop-loss at $69,000, targeting $73,000–$75,000. If the price drops below $69,000, switch to short positions with targets at $68,000–$66,000.
Mid-term: If the daily chart stabilizes above $72,000, consider medium-term long positions with stop-loss at $68,600 and targets at $80,000. If the key support at $68,600 is broken, consider medium-term short positions targeting $58,200.
Ethereum Trading Recommendations
Short-term: Above $1,990, consider short-term long positions with stop-loss at $1,950, targeting $2,200. If the price falls below $1,990, consider waiting or lightly shorting with targets at $1,900.
Mid-term: If it breaks above $2,200, consider medium-term long positions with stop-loss at $2,000 and targets at $2,450–$2,500.

Market Outlook and Investment Advice
Short-term: The crypto market is in a rebound phase after a sharp decline, with key focus on whether Bitcoin can hold above $72,000 and Ethereum can break through $2,200. If key resistance levels are broken, the rebound may continue; if key supports are lost, the market could test new lows.
Mid-term: The crypto industry is in a transition phase, with compliance and technological implementation becoming core drivers. Technologies like Layer 2 scaling solutions and RWA tokenization are worth watching, as the market shifts from speculation to value-driven.
Investment Suggestions:
Spot Investors: Currently, avoid blindly bottom-fishing. Wait until prices stabilize above key supports before gradually building positions.
Derivatives Traders: Focus on short-term operations, strictly set stop-losses, and avoid high leverage.
Long-term Investors: Pay attention to Ethereum ecosystem development; Layer 2 and DeFi sectors still hold long-term value.

What do you think about this rebound? Is it just a technical correction or the start of a trend reversal?