Bitcoin and Aura in 2026: When Comparisons to the 20th Century Explain the Current Market Dynamics

As 2026 progresses, the crypto market finds itself in a delicate position, with Bitcoin struggling to recover from substantial declines while precious metals maintain their impressive gains. This reversal in performance has reignited a fundamental debate: which specific technological risks, such as quantum computing, are truly the factors driving investor behavior? On-chain research and expert perspectives suggest a more nuanced reality—one in which conventional market dynamics better explain current price movements than long-term speculative threats.

The Growing Divide Between Crypto and Traditional Safe Havens

Earlier this month, the global market dynamics marked a clear inflection point. While Bitcoin dropped to approximately $66,420 (a 9.93% decline in 24 hours), traditional safe-haven metals continued to shine. The divergence is remarkable:

• Gold: significant cumulative gains since November 2024
• Silver: massive increases beyond relevant historical levels
• Nasdaq and S&P 500: sustained positive performance

This reallocation of capital reflects a deeper shift in global investor preferences. Record central bank gold accumulations, rising geopolitical tensions, and emerging risks related to sovereign debt have turned metals into the preferred instrument for wealth preservation. Bitcoin, on the other hand, remains classified by many market participants as a risky asset with high beta rather than a safe-haven alternative.

Gold Predictions: Echoes of 20th Century Cycles

Macro analysts have not hesitated to project gold’s long-term potential. Charles Edwards of Capriole Investments presented a notable forecast: gold could reach $12,000 to $23,000 per ounce within the next three to eight years. Edwards argues that the 20th-century cycles of monetary expansion and capital reallocation provide a relevant template for what is unfolding now:

• Central banks are accumulating gold at record rates
• Fiat supply expansion consistently exceeds 10% annually
• China has increased its gold reserves by roughly tenfold in two years
• Confidence in sovereign debt markets is eroding

“If current cycles mirror macroeconomic patterns from the 20th century, reaching a new all-time high for gold is not just possible—it’s probable,” Edwards noted. Even amid overextended technical indicators, structural demand from sovereign institutions surpasses any signs of speculative correction.

Quantum Computing Reemerges in Market Discourse

Bitcoin’s persistent underperformance has sparked a new wave of speculation regarding quantum risks. Nic Carter, partner at Castle Island Ventures, argued this week that Bitcoin’s “mysterious” weakness reflects a growing market awareness of quantum computing threats.

These comments quickly prompted a response from on-chain researchers. Analysts contend that attributing BTC’s decline to fears of quantum computing misinterprets the current dynamics. Blockchain researchers point instead to much more tangible factors: massive supply releases from long-term holders, the psychological threshold of $100,000 triggering sales, and the absorption of new institutional ETF demand.

Why the Quantum Explanation Doesn’t Hold Up

Bitcoin developers remain relatively calm about quantum threats. Adam Back, co-founder of Blockstream, has repeatedly noted that even extreme scenarios would not lead to immediate network losses. The BIP-360 proposal already outlines a clear pathway toward quantum-resistant addresses, allowing gradual upgrades years before any credible threat emerges.

The timeline for a quantum transition spans decades, not market quarters. To threaten elliptic curve cryptography, quantum computers would need to reach capacities far beyond current technological capabilities. This reality makes quantum risk a long-term concern rather than a factor explaining today’s price volatility.

Market Fundamentals Explain Price Reality

On-chain analysis offers a much more convincing narrative. Long-term holders (HODLers) have significantly increased their distribution as Bitcoin approached six-figure territory, flooding the market with supply. This selling was sufficient to absorb new ETF and institutional capital demand, limiting any sustained upward momentum.

As on-chain researcher Checkonchain observed: “Gold is bought by sovereigns instead of bonds. Bitcoin, on the other hand, has seen massive supply releases since 2025—enough to cancel out multiple previous bull cycles.” Investor and author Vijay Boyapati added a more direct trigger: when whales see the psychological $100,000 threshold, they release their positions.

What Bitcoin’s Outlook Looks Like in the Current Macro Environment

For now, market dynamics remain captive to broader macroeconomic forces: rising global bond yields, persistent trade tensions, and a massive sovereign rotation into gold. Bitcoin needs to reclaim the critical zone of $91,000–$93,500 to restore upward momentum. Failure to do so leaves support levels in the downward band between $85,000 and $88,000.

Until monetary or geopolitical clarity improves, Bitcoin will remain reactive to wider macro flows. Meanwhile, gold continues to benefit from a historic shift in global capital—one reminiscent of major reorientations in the 20th century.