Bitcoin mining difficulty soars to 148T! Next year, the hash rate will be adjusted again, and small miners will face elimination.

Bitcoin mining difficulty rises to 148.2 trillion, reaching a new high, a 35% surge from the 110 trillion at the beginning of the year, but still below the October peak of 156 trillion. Large industrial miners drive the increase in hash rate, while small miners are eliminated due to weaker equipment and lower profits. Difficulty adjusts every two weeks to maintain a 10-minute block time. The next adjustment is expected around January 8, 2026. If hash rate continues to grow, it may surpass 149 trillion.

The Hash Rate Arms Race Behind 148T

(Source: CoinWarz)

The rise of Bitcoin mining difficulty to 148.2 trillion is driven by an unprecedented hash rate arms race. The network’s total computational power (measured as hash rate, used to secure the network) has been steadily growing throughout most of 2025. In October, hash rate peaked at over 1,150 EH/s, then gradually declined within the year. Even with slight drops, current hash rate remains well above January levels.

The driving force behind this hash rate surge comes from large companies and industrial-scale mining operations. By utilizing expensive specialized ASIC hardware and cheap electricity, these entities can deploy mining equipment at scale. In contrast, individual miners using consumer-grade hardware or small-scale setups have become completely uncompetitive in this race.

Bitcoin’s difficulty adjustment mechanism is a core protocol feature. Difficulty is directly proportional to hash rate and is adjusted approximately every 2,016 blocks (roughly every two weeks) to target an average block time of about 10 minutes. When blocks are found too quickly, difficulty increases; when too slowly, difficulty decreases.

In the last adjustment, the average time between blocks was about 9.95 minutes, slightly below the 10-minute target. This acceleration effectively increased mining difficulty. This self-regulating mechanism ensures block addition speed does not become too fast, maintaining predictable issuance and network stability. Bitcoin’s decentralized consensus not only resists certain attacks but also provides strong resilience, enabling fault tolerance.

As hash rate continues to climb, analysts predict that if current trends persist until the next adjustment (around January 8, 2026), difficulty could reach new highs, possibly exceeding 149 trillion. This would further squeeze out small miners and accelerate industry scaling and professionalization.

The Survival Crisis and Cost Pressures for Small Miners

The increase in mining difficulty impacts miners of different sizes very differently. For large industrial miners, difficulty increase is merely a technical challenge requiring more hash power. They have sufficient capital to purchase the latest ASICs, negotiate favorable electricity rates with energy providers, or even invest directly in power plants. These scale advantages allow large miners to remain profitable despite rising difficulty.

Conversely, small miners face a survival crisis. Higher difficulty means more electricity and computational power are needed to mine each block. This can strain margins, especially with volatile Bitcoin prices. Rising electricity costs make it increasingly difficult to maintain network operations. For those using older equipment or paying higher electricity rates, current Bitcoin prices may no longer cover mining costs.

Three Major Impacts of the Bitcoin Difficulty Surge

Small Miner Elimination: Weaker hardware and high electricity costs reduce profitability to zero, forcing shutdowns or market exit.

Centralization Risks: The market share of large industrial miners continues to grow, potentially weakening Bitcoin’s decentralization.

Enhanced Network Security: Higher hash rate exponentially increases the cost of 51% attacks, but also raises entry barriers.

In a competitive environment, some miners increase hash rate to maximize profits, purchasing necessary equipment. The result of this arms race is that only those who can continually upgrade hardware, optimize operations, and lower electricity costs will survive. Small miners unable to keep pace with technological and cost challenges are forced out.

This淘汰 process was especially evident in 2025. When Bitcoin’s price fell from the October high of $125,000 to the current $89,000, many high-cost marginal miners were already in loss. The continued rise in difficulty worsened their situation. This phenomenon, known as “miner capitulation,” saw hash rate decline in the short term as some miners shut down their equipment.

Expected Adjustment on January 8, 2026, and Market Impact

The next Bitcoin difficulty adjustment is expected around January 8, 2026. If current hash rate levels persist, difficulty could reach new highs, possibly exceeding 149 trillion. This expectation influences market sentiment and miner strategies. Miners must assess whether their equipment can remain profitable if difficulty rises again. For Bitcoin’s price, miner capitulation is often seen as a bottom indicator, as large-scale miner selling typically signals a capitulation of selling pressure.

Analysts remain uncertain about what this major change means for Bitcoin, but it highlights the resilience and challenges faced by miners. A more complex network offers greater security but also raises barriers for small miners. The rising difficulty reflects overall hash rate growth, a positive sign for network health and security, but also accelerates centralization trends in mining.

Currently, network fluctuations are minor, indicating the self-regulation mechanism is functioning well. The difficulty adjustment is the only safety valve at the protocol level, ensuring block addition speed remains controlled and issuance predictable. Bitcoin’s decentralized consensus not only resists certain attacks but also provides strong resilience, allowing the network to operate stably even amid significant hash rate volatility.

For investors, changes in mining difficulty serve as a leading indicator of market sentiment. Rising difficulty suggests miners are optimistic about future prices and willing to invest more capital. Declining difficulty may signal waning miner confidence or increased selling pressure. The current high of 148T, despite price retracement, reflects miners’ continued confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term prospects.