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Fed December Rate Decision (3:00 AM, December 10):
Latest market odds:
Cut 25bp (84%) vs. Hold steady (16%)
Powell’s inner thoughts:
“Can’t cut, can’t not cut. If I cut, inflation might come back to bite me.
If I don’t, unemployment might hit 5% and Trump will hang me out to dry.”
FOMC 12-member voting group chat probably looks like this:
Doves (7): Cut now! If we don’t, we’ll all end up delivering food!
Hawks (4): Wait a bit longer! Inflation isn’t dead yet!
Swing voter (1): Let me check tonight’s NFP... Huh? Market’s closed? I’m off to get hotpot.
Current market mood:
US stocks and Bitcoin a
Latest market odds:
Cut 25bp (84%) vs. Hold steady (16%)
Powell’s inner thoughts:
“Can’t cut, can’t not cut. If I cut, inflation might come back to bite me.
If I don’t, unemployment might hit 5% and Trump will hang me out to dry.”
FOMC 12-member voting group chat probably looks like this:
Doves (7): Cut now! If we don’t, we’ll all end up delivering food!
Hawks (4): Wait a bit longer! Inflation isn’t dead yet!
Swing voter (1): Let me check tonight’s NFP... Huh? Market’s closed? I’m off to get hotpot.
Current market mood:
US stocks and Bitcoin a
BTC-0.16%













