The non-agricultural data itself will not affect the risk market, especially the currency market, and the expected reaction of the risk market is that the Fed will increase the probability of raising interest rates in July because of the non-agricultural data. Judging from the officials’ speeches, and even Nick’s speeches, the interest rate hike in July should have been reached after the core PCE data appeared, that is, at the end of June. Restrictions are only meant to reduce inflation

To put it bluntly, non-farm payrolls are also the result of inflation, but the Federal Reserve has no way to reduce the demand on the supply side. It can only start from the demand side. If buyers reduce the number of sellers, they will be forced to cut prices. But if everyone has money, then inflation will decrease. The probability will be very low, so the Federal Reserve has been hoping that the labor market can cool down and the unemployment rate will increase appropriately (after all, the unemployment rate is now a new low in modern history), but in fact employment still maintains strong growth. ADP Research Institute and Stanford University U.S. companies added nearly half a million jobs last month, the most in more than a year, according to data from the Digital Economy Lab collaboration. A separate report from Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc. showed layoffs announced by U.S. employers fell to an eight-month low in June
This shows that the U.S. economy still has strong resilience. The advantage is that almost no one talks about the economic recession now. Only the Federal Reserve will talk about it in its own meeting. The second is that the stock market has changed from AI and technology stocks. Rotational transfer is because American companies feel that the Fed’s interest rate hike is actually useless. Those who need to raise funds can still get financing, and those who need to make money from the risk market can still make money. Even regional banks that were once considered to be the risk points of thunderstorms have a better life. More, even the real estate industry, which has been suppressed by interest rates, shows signs of recovery. In this case, the Fed has only two choices, either continue to raise interest rates and maintain high interest rates, or extend the time for maintaining high interest rates.