From the messages themselves, the key is not whether to participate in the second round of negotiations, but the obvious split in statements before and after: releasing signals of easing externally to maintain the negotiation framework, while internally emphasizing distrust and no decision has been made, especially in the context of military disturbances, this divergence is further amplified. This indicates that the current situation is not evolving in a single direction, but is in a stage where diplomatic game-playing and real confrontation are intertwined. For the market, what is truly conveyed is not bullish or bearish signals, but the ongoing presence of uncertainty, with ambiguous directions and fluctuating expectations. This environment itself suppresses risk appetite among funds, making it difficult for the market to form a consistent trend judgment.

Regarding the outlook for Bitcoin and Ethereum, this rebound is more inclined toward a correction after a decline rather than a trend re-establishment; when the market enters a critical resistance zone, the lack of incremental funds to support it makes it easier to trigger the realization of existing positions, leading to difficulty in sustaining the rally and repeated interruptions in momentum. Essentially, this is the result of funds reducing their weekly holdings and shrinking risk exposure, rather than a balanced bullish and bearish stance. Therefore, the current market is more about gradually coming under pressure amid repeated fluctuations, rather than building momentum for an upward attack; in trading, one should not cling to directional guesses but understand the structure: when the rebound continues to weaken and the highs move lower, the market is already signaling that it currently lacks the conditions for a sustained rise. #布伦特原油持续走强 $BTC