🍊4/20 Midday Bitcoin Thoughts

Bitcoin fell from the new high 78323 and, after dropping below the 76272 support, probed down to 74890 to stabilize and rebound. After this level was lost, it turned into strong resistance. The rebound was repeatedly pressured and failed to break through, forming a standard secondary retest structure. Moreover, the second dip broke below the previous low, and the intraday low in the morning touched around 73510.

73510 is the current key defense level. Once it breaks, the prior bullish structure on the hourly timeframe will be completely invalidated, and the price will most likely further test the 72038 support. From 78323 to 73510, the pullback has already been nearly 4000 points; there is basically no more room. Continuing to sell off deeply is unfavorable for the overall trend.

To stop the decline and see a rebound, the price must hold above 74890. Only then can it attempt to target 76272; breaking above that level would create a chance to challenge the prior high again at 78323. If it cannot hold above 74890, as long as it defends 73510 and maintains range-bound consolidation, the hourly timeframe still has opportunities for a counterattack; a break would weaken the trend. Today, it is likely to trade in a consolidating range between 73510-74890 during the daytime.

Trading ideas:
- Follow with a long position on the right side if there is a breakout with volume above 74957;
- If there is a breakdown with volume below 73773 and the rebound cannot get back above, follow with a short position on the right side, and strictly set stop-losses.

Hourly timeframe: Hold above 74957, looking at 76273-77454
4-hour timeframe: Break below 73713, looking at 71724-70552
$BTC
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