Market Strategy Tips (Friday evening, April 18 — until April 21 to date)

Market Analysis
Since Friday evening, the market has been in a phase of multiple resonances: expectations of Federal Reserve policy easing marginally loosening + the US dollar index hitting a three-year low + the Middle East ceasefire taking effect + global risk aversion sentiment warming. Gold has surged against the trend, breaking through the $3,400 per ounce mark, hitting a new all-time high, showing a strong pattern of bullish sentiment release, with volume and price rising together; the crypto market has stabilized and rebounded in sync, with Bitcoin holding above $85,000 and rising above $87,000, mainstream coins all rising in tandem, driven by a weakening dollar + short covering, forming an oversold recovery pattern, with market risk appetite significantly warming.
Macro News
1. The core trading logic of the market has shifted to concerns over US dollar creditworthiness intensifying + the Fed’s rate cut expectations marginally improving + ongoing uncertainties in Middle East geopolitics, leading to a loosening of long-term high interest rate pricing. On Friday evening, Fed Governor Waller stated that if the Middle East conflict can be quickly resolved, core inflation will continue to approach 2%, and there is still a possibility of rate cuts later this year. He also warned that sustained high energy prices would increase inflation stickiness, posing challenges to monetary policy. On April 21, US Eastern Time, Fed official Goolsbee expressed confidence that interest rates will be lower in the next 12–18 months, with short-term inflation expectations rising but long-term expectations remaining stable. Due to concerns over Fed independence triggered by Trump’s statement “fire Powell as soon as possible,” the US dollar index was heavily hit, falling over 1% intraday to a three-year low, boosting non-dollar assets, gold, and cryptocurrencies. The CME FedWatch tool shows the market’s probability of a rate cut in May has fallen to around 6%, but expectations for a September cut have risen to 48%, with a pricing probability of over 70% for one rate cut this year. Regarding Middle East developments, a 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon took effect on April 17, with both sides scheduled to meet in Washington on April 21 for the first time in 34 years. Although fragile, the ceasefire temporarily eased the risk of geopolitical escalation; constructive progress was made in the second round of indirect US-Iran talks, and the Hormuz Strait shipping crisis marginally eased. Brent crude oil remains oscillating between $63–68 per barrel, significantly easing stagflation fears.
2. Gold broke through the historical high, with a comprehensive bullish breakout driven by three factors: a weakening dollar + risk aversion + central bank gold purchases. International spot gold opened on Friday evening at $3,326 per ounce, then continued to rise steadily, breaking the $3,400 mark during the Asian session on April 21, reaching a high of $3,430.67 per ounce, setting a new record high. Currently, it is at $3,423.77 per ounce, up over 2.9%. COMEX gold futures also surged, with a high of $3,418.50 per ounce, latest at $3,411.10, up over 3% intraday. In the domestic market, Shanghai Gold Exchange’s main contract is at 805.06 yuan/gram, up 2.5%; Gold T+D is at 803.87 yuan/gram, up 2.12%; major brands like Chow Tai Fook and Lao Feng Xiang have raised retail prices to 1,038–1,039 yuan/gram, a total increase of 14 yuan/gram from last Friday. The core drivers of this rally are: first, the dollar index hitting a three-year low, increasing concerns over dollar creditworthiness, prompting global funds to rush into gold as a safe haven; second, ongoing long-term central bank gold purchases, with China’s central bank increasing holdings for 18 consecutive months, and the World Gold Council data showing a 21% YoY increase in global central bank net gold purchases in Q1, providing a solid foundation; third, US tariff policy escalation causing global supply chain worries, with risk aversion demand releasing strongly, and domestic gold ETFs seeing net inflows of over 2.88 billion yuan in a single day, with institutional funds significantly returning, including the Wuhan Municipal Financial Committee Office. Risk signals are also emerging: the Shanghai Gold Exchange issued three risk alerts in April, with escalating language warning of high-price volatility risks. Key support levels are: core support at $3,380–$3,400 (a historical key level, support at the top-bottom turning point), strong support at $3,320–$3,350 (a breakout level in this rally, a dividing line between bulls and bears); core resistance at $3,430–$3,450 (intraday new high), and strong resistance at the $3,500 round number.
3. The crypto market has experienced an oversold rebound, with Bitcoin stabilizing above $85,000 and rising above $87,000, driven by a weakening dollar + short covering + marginal capital inflows, creating a resonant rally. Bitcoin opened on Friday evening at $85,051, then continued to oscillate higher, reaching a high of $87,369.18 on April 21. Currently, it is at $87,000, up over 2.3%. Ethereum also strengthened, now at $1,639.91, up over 3.2% intraday, with mainstream coins like SOL and DOGE all rising over 3%. In terms of capital and on-chain data: US Bitcoin spot ETFs ended their previous outflow trend, with net inflows exceeding $3 billion over the past five trading days, with BlackRock’s IBIT and Fidelity’s FBTC continuing to increase holdings. Grayscale’s GBTC net outflows have significantly narrowed, indicating a clear marginal return of institutional funds. The 24-hour liquidation amount in the futures market has shrunk notably, with short liquidations accounting for over 65%, and oversold short covering being a key driver of this rebound. On-chain data shows long-term Bitcoin holders’ holdings remain at a high of 68%, with miner selling pressure significantly easing, indicating strong underlying chip stability. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has risen to 45, moving out of the fear zone, with market sentiment continuing to recover. Technically, the daily chart successfully recovers the key support at $85,000, easing the short-term downtrend. The previous strong resistance is at $88,000, and the core support zone is between $84,000–$85,000.
Special Reminders
Gold has now broken through the historical high, with bullish sentiment fully erupting, but after a short-term large increase, technical overbought conditions are severe, compounded by continuous risk alerts from exchanges, sharply increasing high-level volatility risks. Do not blindly chase highs or hold full positions; there is no clear technical resistance above $3,430, and be cautious of rapid pullbacks caused by profit-taking at the highs. It is recommended to operate with light positions, and only consider small long positions after a pullback stabilizes at the $3,380–$3,400 support zone, with strict stop-loss at $3,350. Consider taking profits on rallies above $3,430, and strictly control position sizes to avoid extreme high-level volatility risks.
The current oversold rebound in the crypto market has recaptured key support levels, easing short-term downward pressure, but the medium-term upward trend has not yet been fully confirmed. Large-scale new capital inflows are still not obvious, and strong resistance above $88,000 has not been broken. It is strictly forbidden to chase the rise with heavy positions or bottom-fish against the trend. Keep positions within 30%, and only consider incremental positions after the market stabilizes at the $84,000–$85,000 support zone and breaks through the strong resistance at $88,000 with increased volume. If the market again effectively breaks below $84,000, the current rebound trend will end, and it is necessary to reduce positions promptly to avoid downside risks, prioritizing observation.