Just been digging into some interesting patterns in the market, and there's this four-year cycle thing that keeps playing out like clockwork. A crypto analyst from ZX Squared Capital is warning that Bitcoin could see another 30% correction as this cycle gains momentum, and honestly, the logic checks out.

So here's what's happening. Bitcoin peaked back in October 2025 at around $126K, which was basically 18 months after the April 2024 halving. That timing is almost textbook for how this cycle works. The halving cuts the supply expansion rate in half every four years, and historically prices spike about 16-18 months after, then you get a bear market that typically lasts around a year. We're now in April 2026 with Bitcoin sitting around $72.8K, which means we're right in that bear phase.

The tricky part is that this cycle seems really hard to break. Why? Because of how people actually behave. Retail investors buy during the hype, panic sell during crashes, and that pattern just keeps reinforcing itself. It's why Bitcoin still acts more like a speculative play than something stable like gold, despite all the talk about institutional adoption.

Here's what caught my attention though - institutional money in crypto is still tiny. ETFs and companies holding Bitcoin as treasury assets represent only about 10% of the market. If some of these firms get squeezed and have to sell to cover debt obligations, that could trigger a nasty cascade effect and deepen the crypto crash even further.

The consensus from people watching this closely is that the bear market probably has more room to run before things turn around. The psychology is just too predictable, and until that changes, we're likely stuck in this boom-bust pattern. Definitely worth watching how things unfold over the next few months.