When oil prices exceed $100, the market suddenly realizes that the "inflation script" might need to be rewritten

If there's one keyword in the recent macro market, it must be:
Oil.
As tensions in the Middle East escalate, especially with the conflict around Iran intensifying, international crude oil prices have once again broken through $100.
This number is more than just a price for the market.
It's more like a psychological threshold.
Because historical experience tells us that when oil prices stay above $100 for a long time, many economic variables will change.
The most direct impact is—
Inflation.
Energy is almost the foundation of all economic activities.
Transportation, manufacturing, logistics, agriculture—all rely on energy.
So when oil prices rise, the costs across the entire economic system are elevated.
This is also why the CPI and PCE data that the market was originally paying attention to now seem to take a backseat for the time being.
Because if oil prices continue to rise, inflation data in the coming months can almost be anticipated in advance.
For central banks, this will create a very complex situation.
If inflation heats up again, the room for rate cuts may be limited.
And if interest rates stay high, risk assets will also face pressure.
So the current market atmosphere is a bit like a game of chess:
Geopolitics
Energy prices
Monetary policy
All three lines are unfolding simultaneously.
$GT ‌#国际油价突破100美元