#美伊局势影响 The oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz come to a halt, and Wall Street traders collectively get a jolt.

On Monday’s open, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield shot up like a rocket, climbing 10 basis points in one go to reach 4.03%. This is the largest single-day increase since October last year. The bond market folks are always the most sensitive—they’re not smelling gunpowder, but the burnt smell of inflation reigniting.
Oil prices surged over 6% in response, and expectations for rate cuts were pushed back by three months. Traders are now betting: seeing the first rate cut in September would be good, a third one in 2026? Don’t even think about it.
Yellen spoke plainly at the shipping conference: the Federal Reserve is now “more inclined to hold steady.” Translated, that means—those policy space they have, they need to save it.
Inflation is still hovering around 3%, a full percentage point away from the 2% target. Just the tariffs from the Trump era contributed 0.5% to that. What worries the Fed even more are psychological expectations: if the market truly believes “3% is the new normal,” then things will get complicated.
JPMorgan’s Dimon gave an analogy, saying inflation is like a skunk at the party—it doesn’t start a riot right away, but that smell drifts in, and everyone will eventually have to leave. Short-term conflicts might have limited impact on oil prices, but no one can say how long this fight will last.
The stock market’s reaction is quite interesting. The S&P 500 dropped over 1% intraday but barely recovered by close. Airline stocks turned downward, while energy and defense sectors remained resilient. Funds are reordering—growth stocks are too sensitive to interest rates; higher rates can wipe out their valuations in a day.
Bitcoin, on the other hand, didn’t fall but rose, jumping back to $69,000 within a day. Gold also touched above $5,300. The safe-haven logic remains, and hard assets are still the way to go. But seasoned crypto players know that the 2022 bear market is a lesson—when liquidity tightens, all beliefs get discounted. Now that rate cut expectations are fading, how long risk appetite can hold in the coming months is anyone’s guess.
Not everyone is pessimistic. Morgan Stanley’s Wilson believes that as long as oil prices don’t spiral out of control, the conflict itself might not overturn the fundamentals of the U.S. stock market. JPMorgan’s trading desk even sees the pullback as a buying opportunity.
Some are more optimistic: if Iran suddenly forms a pro-Western government and reopens the oil taps, that would be a pleasant surprise.
Ultimately, everyone is watching the same variable: how long will the Strait of Hormuz be closed? If it’s just a few days, it’s merely a pulse in oil prices—wait it out. If it’s weeks, then trouble looms—summer gasoline demand, sticky core inflation, tariff aftereffects, all stacking up, enough to force the Fed to keep tightening until next year.
For the crypto market, this means that beyond on-chain data, geopolitical candlestick patterns also need to be monitored. Bitcoin’s rally today is because money is seeking a safe haven. But if Yellen and Dimon are right—that inflation isn’t easing easily and rates won’t fall quickly—then this risk-averse rally might just be a longer, tougher “mid-game break.”