Bear markets are generally divided into several stages. Currently, we are very likely in the second stage of the bear market (the confirmation stage). In this stage, BTC may either decline or trade sideways, while the USDT market cap decreases, market funds are rapidly exiting, and confidence is collapsing. In 2018, there were no major negative news, and BTC mainly fluctuated; in 2022, impacted by Luna and the Three Arrows Capital incident, BTC experienced a sharp decline. The current negative factor is the Iran conflict, which has a weak impact on liquidity, but the US stock market needs a correction, and the market may experience downward volatility.

Regarding the bottom-fishing opportunity, the earliest possible stage is the third stage (the accumulation stage). At this point, the USDT market cap rises, and investors can gradually buy the dip with partial positions. The optimal bottom-fishing zone is not necessarily present; for retail investors, the right-side recovery stage is more ideal, when the USDT market cap continues to grow, BTC bottoms out, stabilizes, or even moves upward.

Currently, Trump’s visit to China may end the geopolitical negative news, but whether a black swan appears during communication is unknown. There are still events like Wosh’s appointment and Japan’s interest rate hikes to consider. The first wave of bottom-fishing opportunities requires patience, and a comprehensive judgment should be made based on USDT market cap, geopolitical factors, monetary policy, and other considerations.