‍#贵金属和油价飙升

Under the Shadow of the Strait of Hormuz: The Rebound Path of Oil Prices and Precious Metals Market Outlook
The US-Iran conflict is escalating rapidly, first with multiple high-ranking Iranian officials killed in attacks, then Iran attacking several US military bases in the Middle East. As the situation continues to escalate, international precious metals and crude oil markets are experiencing widespread gains. Gold and silver markets opened sharply higher this week, then pulled back slightly, while the oil market has been aggressively bullish. Today, Iran announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, further "adding fuel to the fire," causing prices to rise even more. I remain optimistic about oil prices moving upward, but caution that gold and silver markets may form a "double top" pattern.
1. Crude Oil Market
As of now, Brent crude futures have risen to $79.41 per barrel, an increase of over 15% from the previous low. From a technical perspective, oil prices have broken through the previous consolidation range of $70-75 per barrel, forming an upward breakout pattern. The RSI indicator has quickly risen to 78, approaching overbought territory, indicating strong bullish momentum but also short-term correction risk; the MACD has generated a bullish crossover and continues to expand, signaling a developing upward trend. In the short term, attention should be paid to resistance at $80-82 per barrel. If this level is effectively broken, further upside potential opens; support levels are at $75-77 per barrel, the upper boundary of the previous consolidation zone, providing strong support.
Future oil price movements will depend on three core variables:
1. Navigation status of the Strait of Hormuz: This is the "key switch" determining oil price trends. The Strait accounts for 20% of global oil transportation, with exports from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and other oil-producing countries highly dependent on this route^. Currently, while the strait is not fully blocked, tanker traffic has nearly halted, with freight and insurance costs soaring. If the blockade persists for more than 3 weeks, Gulf oil producers may be forced to cut production due to depleted inventories, potentially pushing Brent crude above $100 per barrel; if navigation resumes within 1-2 weeks, prices may fall back to around $75 per barrel, with geopolitical premiums gradually dissipating^.
2. Scale and duration of the conflict: If the US and Israel only conduct "limited strikes," and Iran responds symbolically, oil prices may spike temporarily then retreat; if the conflict escalates to a full-scale war involving more oil-producing countries, prices could break through $120 per barrel, triggering a global energy crisis^. Currently, anti-war voices exist within the US, and Iran possesses asymmetric retaliation capabilities, making a full-scale war less likely, but the risk of localized conflict escalation remains.
3. OPEC+ policy adjustments: OPEC+ has announced an emergency meeting to discuss production policies. If the organization decides to significantly increase output, it could alleviate supply tightness to some extent and suppress oil price increases. However, current idle capacity within OPEC+ is mainly concentrated in Saudi Arabia and the UAE, totaling about 3-4 million barrels per day, which is insufficient to fully offset the supply gap caused by the Strait of Hormuz closure.

2. Gold Market
Affected by the escalation of the US-Iran conflict, international spot gold prices surged to a record high of $5,420 per ounce on March 1, then retreated due to profit-taking by bulls, remaining in the $5,350-5,400 per ounce range as of March 3^. This trend reflects both gold’s safe-haven attributes and short-term profit-taking after rapid gains. The silver market is weaker, experiencing a sharp decline this morning. After the initial positive sentiment from the conflict has been digested, attention should be paid to whether gold and silver prices will form a "double top" pattern.
From a technical perspective, gold prices have broken through the previous consolidation range of $5,200-5,300 per ounce, maintaining a solid medium-term upward structure. The $5,300 support level is strong; if broken, prices could further retrace to around $5,250 per ounce.
The escalation of the US-Iran conflict has heightened global risk aversion, and gold, as a traditional safe-haven asset, will continue to attract capital inflows. As long as the conflict does not substantially ease, gold prices are unlikely to fall sharply^.

3. My Trading Strategy
I haven't yet taken positions in traditional finance (TradFi) on this wave, but last weekend, right after the war started, I immediately went long on XAUT and XAG perpetual contracts. Using the 24-hour trading feature of perpetual contracts, I took advantage of the time difference, and after gold and silver markets opened high on Monday, I made a small profit. I plan to use these profits to continue trading in TradFi, and I welcome everyone to join me in the fun!