Token unlocks, as preset events in the lifecycle of crypto assets, often reshape market supply and demand in the short term and serve as a key window to observe project ecosystem health and participant behavior. In the first week of March 2026, over $572 million worth of crypto tokens will be gradually released, with Hyperliquid (HYPE), RedStone (RED), and Ethena (ENA) drawing market attention due to their unlock scale, circulating supply ratio, or representative roles in their respective sectors. This article will objectively analyze the timeline, fund structure, market sentiment, and potential industry impact behind this unlock event, aiming to provide readers with a clear and rational understanding framework.

Market Focus: $572 Million Supply Wave — HYPE, RED, ENA Unlock Imminent

According to data sources like Token Unlocks, multiple crypto projects will experience linear or one-time token unlocks from March 2 to March 8, 2026. Among them, three projects warrant special attention due to their market positions and unlock scales:

• Hyperliquid (HYPE): Approximately 9.92 million tokens will unlock on March 6, mainly allocated to core contributors. Source: Tokenomist
• RedStone (RED): About 40.85 million tokens will unlock on March 6, distributed to early supporters, core contributors, ecosystem data providers, and protocol developers. Source: Tokenomist
• Ethena (ENA): Already unlocked on March 2, with 40.63 million tokens fully belonging to the foundation. Source: Tokenomist

This unlock event is not an isolated price driver but a comprehensive test involving early participant behavior, protocol governance logic, and market liquidity capacity.

From Project Development to Unlock Nodes: Growth Trajectories of the Three Projects

Understanding the deeper significance of this unlock requires viewing it within each project’s development context.

• Hyperliquid: Rewards for L1 high-performance DEX contributors

Hyperliquid, with its self-developed Layer 1 blockchain and on-chain order book, has established a leading position in perpetual contract DEXs. This unlock is part of the project’s token distribution plan, aimed at rewarding early core contributors. The timing, after the mainnet launch and stable operation, reflects the project’s emphasis on team incentives.

• RedStone: Multi-party interest coordination via modular oracle

As an emerging oracle solution, RedStone has rapidly expanded across multi-chain ecosystems with its modular design. The March 6 unlock marks an important release following its token generation event, involving early supporters, core contributors, and ecosystem data providers. This multi-party distribution structure means token flow post-unlock will be more complex, with potential profit-taking needs and ongoing ecosystem investments.

• Ethena: Foundation reserve management for synthetic USD protocol

Ethena’s USDe has become a significant player in the synthetic dollar sector. The March 2 unlock is part of its linear release plan, with all tokens allocated to the foundation. Unlike direct allocations to individuals or teams, foundation-held tokens are typically used for ecosystem funding, liquidity incentives, or protocol security reserves, making sell pressure more indirect and controllable.

Unlock Scale, Proportion, and Recipient Map

Based on Gate market data as of March 2, 2026, we quantify the impact of these three projects’ unlocks.

Analysis perspectives:

• Absolute impact (HYPE): With an unlock value exceeding $300 million, HYPE leads this week’s impact, accounting for about 55% of total unlock volume. Such a large potential seller base could test short-term liquidity and price stability even if only a portion enters the market.
• Relative impact (RED): Although smaller in total value, RED’s 16.13% circulating share is the highest among the three. Without sufficient buy-side depth, this high proportion could significantly amplify price volatility.
• Structural differences (ENA): ENA’s unlock is the most moderate in both amount and proportion, with all tokens going to the foundation. This structure suggests lower immediate sell pressure compared to the other two.

Short-term Caution vs. Long-term Outlook: Divergent Views

Market sentiment on this unlock is polarized into two main viewpoints:

• Viewpoint 1: Short-term bearishness, supply surplus concerns

Many short-term traders see large unlocks as potential sell pressure. For HYPE and RED, there’s concern that early supporters and contributors might realize profits post-unlock, exerting downward pressure on prices. Discussions on social media about “unlock equals dump” are common, and such sentiment can trigger risk-off selling even before the event.

• Viewpoint 2: Long-term neutrality, focus on ecosystem development

Long-term observers believe unlocks are part of tokenomics design, with impact depending on project fundamentals. For example, if Hyperliquid maintains high trading volume and fee income, staking demand and intrinsic value could offset new supply. Similarly, if RedStone announces new partnerships or integrations post-unlock, tokens allocated to data providers and ecosystem participants could drive network growth.

Examining the “Dump” Narrative: Facts and Perspectives

The unlock event itself is factual: specific tokens will transfer at a certain time. The narrative that this will lead to a market crash is a viewpoint that requires caution.

• Facts vs. opinions: The fact is that a certain amount of tokens will be transferred at a specific time. The opinion is that these tokens will be sold. There’s a significant logical gap between the two.
• Recipient behavior speculation: The willingness of early contributors or supporters to sell depends on their confidence in the project, personal capital costs, macro market conditions, and unlock terms (e.g., linear release). These are unobservable variables.
• Data-driven rational judgment: When viewed against the project’s total market cap, HYPE’s 2.72% and ENA’s 0.53% are not enough to instantly overturn project value. Even RED’s 16.13% impact depends on actual sell orders and market absorption capacity in real-time.

Confidence, Design, and Maturity

This week’s unlock surpasses individual projects and offers industry insights:

• Confidence test for DeFi infrastructure: HYPE (high-performance trading chain) and RED (oracle) are core DeFi infrastructure. Their token performance will influence market valuation and supply absorption expectations for the entire DeFi sector.
• Stress test of token distribution models: The event provides a window to observe how different models (e.g., concentrated to teams vs. dispersed among stakeholders) perform in real markets, informing future token design.
• Market maturity assessment: Whether the market panics and sells or rationally prices based on project progress will be tested. A mature market should better absorb such supply events.

Three Possible Market Evolution Paths

Based on the above analysis, we can project several potential scenarios for the coming week:

• Scenario 1: Price discovery and partial pre-pricing of the unlock’s bearish impact. On unlock day, HYPE and RED may see some price dips, but trading volume will likely increase, indicating new buyers entering. As tokens are gradually absorbed, prices could stabilize and revert to fundamentals driven by TVL and trading activity. ENA, with its favorable unlock structure, may see minimal impact.
• Scenario 2: Amplified negative sentiment and panic selling. Weak macro conditions combined with fear of unlocks could cause some holders to rush to sell. Early recipients might offload to avoid further declines, creating a downward feedback loop. RED, with its smaller circulating supply, could experience the largest short-term volatility.
• Scenario 3: Resilience beyond expectations. Core contributors or early supporters may hold rather than sell, instead staking or participating in governance, signaling strong confidence. This could reverse market sentiment, pushing prices higher and creating a “bad news fully digested” rally.

Conclusion: Finding Rational Coordinates Amid Certainty Events

The token unlock in the first week of March 2026 exemplifies the normalized supply mechanism in crypto markets. For Hyperliquid, RedStone, and Ethena, it’s both an execution of scheduled plans and a test of community consensus and market depth. Through data analysis and scenario planning, we can dispel the single narrative of “unlock equals bearish,” recognizing that the ultimate market direction results from complex interactions among unlock structure, recipient psychology, project fundamentals, and macro environment. For market participants, distinguishing facts from opinions and making decisions based on verifiable logic rather than emotions is perhaps the best way to stay rational during such events.