#深度创作营 Ethereum 2029 Confidential Files: Rewriting the Internet’s Genome Before the Quantum Grim Reaper Knocks

On February 26, 2026, while you’re still staring at the boring 50 million token burn announcement from the Flow Foundation, trying to predict today’s lunch money with candlestick charts, the real thunder has already exploded in the scientific community.
The University of Chicago and New Scientist have just jointly torn back a layer of window paper: the number of qubits needed to crack RSA encryption has plummeted from millions directly down to hundreds of thousands. That experimental result, which suggests that a slight chemical tweak could cause quantum computers to go into overdrive, means the so-called “cryptographic apocalypse” expected only by 2035 might have already set its alarm for 2029. At this moment, Vitalik Buterin’s “Strawmap” (straw man roadmap) in his hands is no longer a geek’s romantic fantasy but a ticket to escape when facing death.

📢Strawman Tactics: Don’t Be Fooled by the Word “Roadmap”

If you still naively think Ethereum’s roadmap is a step-by-step construction plan, then you’re probably the kind of optimist still studying the dinner menu while the Titanic hits the iceberg. Vitalik’s “Strawmap” is not a promise; it’s a dynamic, even somewhat desperate game model. It’s called “Strawman” because it’s always ready to be overturned, reconstructed, or sacrificed for survival.
The current situation is clear: the L2 wars have turned into boring capital games. Giants like Consensys, Polygon, and ZKsync are drinking and chatting in the Enterprise Ethereum Alliance (EEA), trying to use ZK technology to put Wall Street bigwigs in privacy underwear. But for Ethereum Layer 1, the real battle has long been about “quantum resistance,” not scalability. Today’s Ethereum is like a race car speeding down the highway, not only changing tires (sharding) but also swapping out the fuel engine for a nuclear fusion reactor without stopping. The vision for 2029 is essentially a race against a variant of Moore’s Law: will Ethereum complete the replacement of its underlying signature algorithms with Post-Quantum Cryptography (PQC) first, or will Google and IBM’s quantum dominance tear existing private keys apart like ripping open a potato chip bag?

📢The Sword of Damocles Hanging Overhead: The Ultimatum of 100,000 Qubits
Let’s put aside the clichés about “quantum computing still being far away.” Just 24 hours ago, a breakthrough in superconducting qubit connection schemes had already reduced the cost of cracking 2048-bit RSA encryption by ten times. What does that mean? It means that your proud mnemonic phrase in your wallet might not be much safer than a phone number written on a bathroom stall in the face of future quantum computers.
This is the most core and ruthless part of “Strawmap.” Ethereum must complete a smooth transition from ECDSA (Elliptic Curve Digital Signature Algorithm) to quantum-resistant signature schemes within the next three years. This is not a simple software upgrade; it’s like requiring hundreds of millions of users worldwide and trillions of dollars in assets to undergo a covert genetic mutation. If it fails or moves too slowly, we won’t be discussing whether “Ethereum can surpass Bitcoin,” but rather “the physical way Ethereum hits zero.”
Markets are short-sighted; they only see superficial benefits like Flow burning 3% of supply but fail to perceive the tectonic shifts happening beneath the surface. The truly smart money is not watching candlestick charts but examining the code commit records of the Ethereum Foundation’s cryptography research team.

📢The Last Bastion of Privacy: Corporate Anxiety and Zero-Knowledge Proofs
Just yesterday, the Enterprise Ethereum Alliance (EEA) not only brought in Ernst & Young (EY) but also pulled in Consensys and Polygon to establish a privacy working group. Don’t think this is just big companies flattering each other; the underlying message is fear. Wall Street and multinational conglomerates have already sniffed blood: if Ethereum cannot solve privacy issues and quantum threats, their multi-billion-dollar RWA (Real-World Asset) tokenization projects will be exposed as naked sheep.
The formation of this working group marks another hidden thread in Ethereum’s 2029 vision—“Privacy is Survival.” Vitalik has always emphasized the widespread adoption of Stealth Addresses and ZK technology, not just to hide your private funds in this decentralized casino but also to endow Ethereum with the physical attribute of carrying commercial secrets. Future Ethereum must be a “dark forest,” where external observers can only see the flow of computing power but not the ownership of value. Only by achieving this, combined with a quantum-proof shield, can Ethereum truly evolve from a geek’s toy into the “dark matter” foundation of the internet.
If you can’t understand 2029, you can’t understand value. Looking back from 2026, you’ll realize we are at a very delicate historical turning point. On one hand, the exponential leap in quantum technology is like a beast unleashed, ready to devour the cryptographic foundations of the old world at any moment; on the other hand, Ethereum’s frantic evolution through “Strawmap” is trying to grow steel scales before the beast bites its throat.
By 2029, if Ethereum still exists, it will no longer look like what you see today. It will be a behemoth that no longer relies on human manual signatures, natively integrates quantum-resistant algorithms, and defaults to privacy attributes. At that time, ETH will no longer be just gas fees but the “oxygen tax” for survival in the digital world. As for those still arguing over Layer 2 TPS (transactions per second) with red faces, they are like primitives arguing over bow and arrow range on the eve of nuclear war. From today, this game has already changed rules.