Market Analysis 2026.02.24

Since Bitcoin (BTC) bottomed out at 60,000 and rebounded on February 6, my definition of the rise starting from 60,000 is a rebound. On a larger scale, it is still in a downtrend. BTC may end its two-week-long consolidation this week.

Continuing with previous ideas, there are two possible scenarios for BTC's recent movement:

Red: The oversold rebound starting from 60,000 ends with a sideways consolidation, with 72,200 as the rebound high. The subsequent half-month sideways movement has absorbed the upward momentum that should have appeared. In this case, BTC is already in a downtrend. If it falls to the indicated range in mid to late March and finds support, it could end the entire decline that started at 97,900, and after this decline ends, a rebound of the same level may occur.

Blue: Recently, after finding support in the blue zone shown in the chart, BTC quickly surged, with the same level of rise as from 60,000 to 72,200. BTC's recent movement has been weak, but as long as it does not break below the previous low of 60,000, this scenario cannot be ruled out. If this route is followed, the next few days will be the last chance; if it cannot push higher or breaks below 60,000, the possibility of this movement being invalidated increases.