2026-02-23 19:13:34

Market volatility has rarely been this high under the surface:

The 1-month realized volatility of the S&P 500 average stock relative to index volatility is up to 24 points, the highest on record.

This means individual stocks are experiencing much larger price swings than the S&P 500 index itself.

The difference is even higher than during the 2008 Financial Crisis.

Meanwhile, the S&P 500 has traded in a 2-month closing range of just 3.7%, less than half the 20-year median of 8.6%, and one of the tightest ranges in history.

By comparison, in 2020 and 2008, the range was 35.0% and 38.0%, respectively.

Institutional activity, including selling and shorting, is more consistent with the Volatility index, $VIX, at 35 points, well above the current reading of 20.

Is the index volatility set to spike?

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