The Bottom Where Whales Are Absent: Why This Rebound Might Require More Patience

In February 2026, Bitcoin hovered between $60,000 and $70,000, with the Fear and Greed Index flashing "Extreme Fear" red lights. Technical indicators also entered oversold territory—all signaling to the market that a bottom might be near. However, an analyst at CryptoQuant poured cold water on this optimism: the real buyers haven't arrived yet.

1. The Paradox of the Bottom: Consistent Data, Absent Whales

"Many market indicators point to a bottom and extreme fear, but we haven't seen the dominant players (whales) truly capitalize on this situation," CryptoQuant contributor Mignolet noted in an analysis on February 18.

His core logic is simple and direct: a bottom isn't just an emotional reading; it's an event—requiring genuine buying pressure to confirm. No matter how many indicators suggest a bottom, without actual buying strength, we can't know where the real bottom will be.

This contrasts sharply with the 2024 bull cycle. Back then, despite fear dominating headlines, large allocators were quietly accumulating—U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs (especially BlackRock's IBIT and Fidelity's FBTC) clearly absorbed selling pressure, providing measurable support to the market. Now, the roughly one-year accumulation pattern of FBTC has been "broken," and IBIT's holdings are trending downward.

2. Volatility and Liquidity: Another Side of the Market

A recent report from Matrixport revealed another dilemma: while volatility has retreated from high levels, liquidity continues to drain. Bitcoin recently plummeted from around $85,000 to a low of $60,000, with implied volatility in options soaring to nearly 65%, reflecting strong hedging demand during the decline. Subsequently, volatility fell back to around 50%, indicating some tail risk hedges are being unwound, easing short-term pressure.

However, traders are gradually unwinding crash hedges, and overall positions have become noticeably lighter, with participation dropping significantly. Matrixport pointed out that such combined features often appear before major directional moves. But the question remains: is the direction up or down?

3. Macro Variables: Improvements and Divergences

On the macro front, some positive signals have emerged. The probability of a recession in the U.S. in 2026 has been lowered from over 40% in mid-2025 to just above 20%. Global liquidity is expanding at over 10% annually—a backdrop generally inconsistent with a long-term Bitcoin bear market.

Yet, crypto asset prices haven't clearly followed this macro improvement. Andrei Dragosh, head of European research at Bitwise, noted that such divergences are usually hard to sustain long-term. He also warned that, apart from the COVID-19 pandemic period, Bitcoin typically doesn't recover in a V-shape after heavy sell-offs—"the most likely scenario is continued sideways movement or further decline."

4. The Art of Waiting: Confirming the Bottom Takes Time

Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Mike McGlone recently revised his extremely bearish forecast, raising Bitcoin's downside target from $10,000 to around $28,000. While still pessimistic, this adjustment reflects a convergence in market pricing of extreme scenarios.

Mignolet's description of the current phase might be the most fitting: "Waiting." He chooses to step back, observe "liquidity flows, supply and demand conditions, and overall market sentiment," then "reset" his analytical framework. In his view, this downtrend "is unlikely to end easily," and the possible outcomes are either an unexpected decline or an unexpected sideways trend—or a combination of both.

5. Conclusion

When everyone is watching the same data and drawing the same conclusions, the market often doesn't follow the expected script. The absence of whales reminds us: forming a bottom requires not only the exhaustion of selling pressure but also a genuine return of buyers.

For ordinary investors, confirming the bottom might be more important than guessing it. As Mignolet said, even if the price ultimately holds the current zone, it takes time to confirm. In this noisy market, patience often proves more valuable than prediction.
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Disclaimer: This article is based solely on analysis of publicly available market information and personal opinions, and does not constitute any investment advice. Cryptocurrency investments carry high risks; please make decisions cautiously. #Gate廣場發帖領五萬美金紅包