BTC 60K versus 40K

BTC is currently around 68K. The real question isn't whether the price will go down, but how deep the decline will be.
The actual price is close to 55K, and in each major bear cycle, BTC typically drops 24-30% from this level before hitting a true bottom.
That predicts a price range of 38K-42K, not 60K.
Currently, 55% of the supply is still in profit.
At the lows of the previous cycle, this number dropped to around 45-50% — meaning a true capitulation has not yet occurred.
Actual monthly losses are much lower than the 2022 bottom, and market capitalization indicates very little new capital absorbing the sell-off.
60K is a safe level. 40K aligns with historical structure.
The market bottoms when there is pain or new liquidity — and so far, we haven't seen both.