Meta's AI Capex Gamble Pays Off: Why the Market Just Began Betting Big on Zuckerberg's Vision

For years, investors celebrated the “Magnificent Seven” tech giants’ aggressive capital spending on artificial intelligence infrastructure. The narrative was simple: these companies wouldn’t deploy billions unless they expected exceptional returns. But that optimism soured. As companies accumulated debt to fund AI ambitions, skepticism took hold. Suddenly, massive capex became a liability, not an asset.

Meta Platforms, however, just shattered that script. After CEO Mark Zuckerberg declared his commitment to accelerating AI infrastructure investment—with no plans to slow down—the market responded with enthusiasm. Meta’s stock surged following the January earnings announcement, signaling that investors are willing to back Zuckerberg’s conviction when results speak louder than promises.

The Evidence: Meta’s AI is Actually Monetizing

Talk is cheap. Results matter. Meta’s fourth-quarter performance delivered exactly what skeptical investors needed to see: concrete returns on AI spending.

The company crushed earnings expectations, beating revenue estimates by approximately $1.3 billion while guiding next quarter above analyst consensus. But the real story lives in the advertising segment, which jumped roughly 24% year-over-year. This acceleration wasn’t accidental—it was engineered through deliberate AI investments.

Meta doubled the number of graphics processing units (GPUs) deployed to train its advertisement-ranking algorithm. The goal: identify which ads resonate most with each user’s interests. The company also deployed AI-powered business assistants that help companies optimize their advertising campaigns and receive real-time account support.

Perhaps most compelling: Meta’s AI-driven video generation tools hit an annual revenue run rate of $10 billion—and this division is expanding three times faster than Meta’s core advertising business. This is what the market demands from AI investment: not speculation, but measurable monetization.

Zuckerberg’s Unapologetic Acceleration

Despite the market’s recent skepticism toward big tech capex, Zuckerberg isn’t pumping the brakes. Meta guided for artificial intelligence capital expenditure between $115 billion and $135 billion in 2026—considerably above Wall Street’s consensus forecast of $111 billion. For context, the company spent just over $72 billion on capex throughout 2025.

During Meta’s earnings call, Zuckerberg articulated his strategy plainly: “As we plan for the future, we will continue to invest very significantly in infrastructure to train leading models and deliver personal super intelligence to billions of people and businesses around the world.”

This spending targets two main initiatives. The first is Meta’s Superintelligence Labs, which is building AI systems designed to replicate and surpass human cognitive abilities. The second remains the company’s core advertising machinery—the proven engine driving today’s returns.

The Counterargument: History Isn’t Always Kind to Zuckerberg’s Bets

Investors should enter with clear eyes. While the market has now essentially green-lit Zuckerberg’s AI spending spree, it withheld approval for roughly a year. Even after the recent stock rally, Meta has climbed only 8% over the past twelve months.

More importantly, Zuckerberg carries a complicated track record. He’s been visionary on numerous occasions, yet he’s also misjudged emerging technologies before. Exhibit A: Meta’s Reality Labs division, the company’s virtual reality hardware and software unit designed to spearhead the metaverse initiative.

Reality Labs has hemorrhaged capital. The division reported an operating loss exceeding $6 billion in the latest period and has accumulated operating losses totaling $80 billion since 2020. The metaverse bet—something Meta restructured its entire company around—failed to materialize as imagined.

This history demands caution. Investors should celebrate Meta’s demonstrable success in monetizing AI within its advertising business. But they must remain vigilant if Zuckerberg begins directing massive sums into speculative technologies that lack clear monetization pathways.

Positioning Your Portfolio

The question for individual investors remains complex. Meta’s recent earnings validated its AI capex thesis, at least within its proven advertising ecosystem. The company’s guidance and forward momentum have clearly moved market sentiment.

However, the gap between past AI-capex skepticism and current enthusiasm leaves room for sentiment reversal. Those considering Meta as an investment should weigh the company’s concrete AI advertising wins against the Reality Labs cautionary tale. The AI story at Meta is compelling but not risk-free. Success in today’s ad-tech realm doesn’t guarantee similar returns from whatever comes next.