📌 2026-02-16 ETH Technical Overview (As of 12:45)

Current Price: approximately $1,980 (-3.2%)
Trend: Very weak in the short term, bearish medium-term outlook, following deep market correction

📉 Key Technical Levels (Core)

- Resistance Levels (Sellers)
- First Resistance: $1,995–$2,025 (psychological level + short-term moving average resonance)
- Second Resistance: $2,040 (strong resistance, break above this level signals exit for short positions)
- Medium-term Strong Resistance: $2,100–$2,150 (50-day moving average + previous support level)
- Support Levels (Buyers)
- First Support: $1,950 (intraday low + psychological level)
- Strong Support: $1,900–$1,930 (weekly key support + demand zone)
- Lifeline: $1,890 (break below this accelerates bearish sentiment)

📊 Indicator Signals (Bearish)

- Moving Average System
- Price below 5/20/50-day moving averages → Bearish dominance
- 5-day MA turning downward, 20-day MA significantly suppressing price
- MACD (1H/4H)
- Death cross, increasing green bars → Strong downward momentum
- RSI (1H/4H)
- 30–35 range, approaching oversold but not yet reversing → Weak rebound
- Bollinger Bands
- Price near lower band → Weak volatility oscillation
- Super Trend / Parabolic SAR
- Bearish signal, confirming downtrend

🧠 Market Structure and Capital

- Liquidation Data: 24-hour ETH long liquidation of $80 million, longs account for over 75% → Long squeeze, deleveraging not yet complete
- Position Structure: HODL wave shows distribution → Long-term holders are selling
- On-chain / Capital: Capital outflows, TVL declining → Insufficient buying pressure
- Holiday Impact: Low liquidity on Lunar New Year’s Eve, limited volatility, prone to quick rebounds and drops

🎯 Today’s Strategy (Cautious)

- Short-term (Intraday)
- Short: Attempt short positions on rebounds to $1,995–$2,025, stop loss at $2,040, targets $1,950 → $1,930 → $1,900
- Long: Not recommended to bottom-fish; if $1,910–$1,930 stabilizes with increased volume, consider light long positions, stop loss at $1,890, targets $1,960 → $1,990
- Medium-term (1–3 days)
- If breaks below $1,890 → Accelerate bearish outlook, target $1,800
- Stabilization Signal: Volume breakout above $2,040 with support, only then consider trend reversal

⚠ Risk Reminder

- Market (BTC) correlation is very high, follow overall market movements
- High leverage liquidation risk is very high, strictly control position size and stop-loss
- Low liquidity during holidays, high slippage risk

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